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Tag: ERTS

Activision Does Not Disappoint!

Activision Blizzard continues to bring in good news. They received an upgrade from the street on last Wednesday. Here’s what they got to say: “Activision Blizzard has gained 18% during the past year, trailing major benchmarks. The stock trades at a price-to-book ratio of 1.4 and a price-to-sales ratio of 3.4, 73% and 48% discounts to peer averages. It’s also cheap based on projected earnings.” Link. – http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10731104/1/honda-activision-mt-ratings-upgrades.html

World of Warcraft continues to make them millions of dollars. They must have the best marketing/sales/product team in the industry. In the past week, they created a new horse called the ‘Celestial Steed.’ They charged WoW players $25 to buy it. In just four hours, they made over $2 million dollars off it. It must have took the designer maybe 1-2 days to design the 3D horse model. Even if it took him a week, they still made tons more than the price to pay the designer to create it. I’m sure Activision will continue to find ways to monetize their games. It’s definitely a model that will be built into future gaming.

They also have a few big hits coming out at the end of the year. Star Craft II is planned to be released in the late summer or fall. Disablo III is planned to come out early next year. The next expansion to World of Warcraft is set to be released for the holidays. There’s still plenty of time to get in before all the action happens, but you can bet the second half of 2010 will be big for the company.

Gamestop is already selling pre-orders for Starcraft II. If you are an avid gamer, you can get into the beta just by pre-ordering the game. They will give you a beta key to start warming up your keyboard touches and mouse clicks. It has already been a hit on Amazon as a ‘Bestseller’ being ranked in the top 200 sellers in video games. They also still have Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 making tons of cash. It got recently rated ‘Best Successful Launch in Video Games’ by making over $400 million within one day. It surpassed Grand Theft Auto which had the record at over $300 million.

What can they do for the early part of 2010?

I’d hope they have started creating games for the iPad and moved into the mobile phone field. You can bet Electronic Arts is establishing themselves in these fields after lackluster sales from their console games. Activision has to continue to make strong games that sell. Short-term the outlook is cloudy, but the stock charts have shown strong support to keep the price up. Long-term this stock is a keeper. You have the most popular computer games being released from Blizzard. They will all sure be hits when they come out.

Let’s see what the earnings say on May 6th.

Disclosure: I’m in ATVI and I have puts in ERTS

Electronic Arts Continues to Impress

Electronic Arts continues to grow to a better tune. They have just released Battlefield Bad Company 2. It ranks #6 on the top sellers right now on XBox. Playstation 3 is in the top 25. They also have Mass Effect 2 on the top 100. Dante’s Inferno is at the bottom, but still in the top 100. Final Fantasy XIII is ranked the top game, but many players like specific genres and not everyone is into RPG games.

ERTS looks good going forward. They have a bunch of good games coming out. Their positioned for a strong upturn for the next quarter.

Let’s take a look at their daily chart:

This small chart shows the past month.  Each candle represents one day.  There might still be a tiny drop coming, but look at that consolidation.  This stock will have a big gap up or a drop, but I think the bottom is already in.

Video Games Will Prosper Once Again

Activision (ATVI) and Electronic Arts (ERTS) will regain their strength once again.  Once said to be recession proof stocks, they have rapidly dropped to 5-year lows and they have continued to get bad press for missing out on analysts estimates.  They still make a profit quarterly and will continue to make cash flow in the years ahead.  2010 looks to be a good year for their video games line-up.  I’m in it for the long-term and I will be patient to sell.

Activision is the best prospect to play the long-term.  After last week’s earnings release, their stock popped up 10%.  It went from $10 to $11 and many investors sold their gains.  I’m holding on.  They just released Starcraft II on beta and they expect a release in the summer time.  If anything, this is probably the best time to get in.  Starcraft I sold over 4 million copies in Korea alone.  It’s a game played globally for it’s great single-player and multi-player action.  They even have television channels made exclusively for the game.

Activision is also planning on releasing a few more big hits later this year such as another Call of Duty game.  The fan base for this first-person shooter will definitely be buying again for 2010 after seeing the showing for Modern Warfare 2.  Spider-Man and James Bond are going to have another video game release also.  There will also be a few Guitar Hero releases.

Have you heard of World of Warcraft?  NetEase.com (NTES), World of Warcraft’s china provider for MMOG, has been allowed to put their expansion Burning Crusade out to the public.  Last year, the government stopped WOW subscriptions since they needed better regulation.  This pretty much means the government wants a way to control a foreign commodity that has tons of potential in their market.  This had an immediate drop in the Activision price.  With the announcement of WOW subscriptions being allowed again, you can bet the profits will pick up for Activision.  Most people have not heard any news about this, but you will definitely see it with the earnings.

Electronic Arts (ERTS) has been on a bad streak for the past year.  They have lost profits and have given gloomy reports for the next quarters.  I think they are releasing estimates that are at the ‘worse-case’ scenarios.  This is especially since their line-up has been doing quite well recently.  Their Battlefield Bad Company II just broke the record for the most downloaded demos.  It has over 3.5 million downloads.  This will definitely be another big hit such as Activision’s Modern Warfare II.  They already have a hit with the release of Mass Effect 2.  It has glowing reviews and everyone who’s played it is hooked.  It hit second on the most sales for the January video game charts.

Another couple things to look forward to is Tiger Woods return back to golf and FIFA Online.  Tigers Woods should help get their golf game back to action.  I’m not too sure how they will monetize online soccer but I’m sure they have sponsors that will back this game and I doubt their are that many fees to hosting these servers if it does not follow through with success.

I think the worse case scenarios have already been priced in these two stocks and look to make some big cash with each.

Electronic Arts Outlook Looking Better

Electronic Arts (ERTS) has had a terrible winter quarter.  They had massive layoffs, miserable sales during the holidays, and lowered guidance in January.  Their stock has been punished.  It’s almost at $16 which is very near its all-time 5-year lows which was hit previously in March 2009.  However, I tend to look at the long-term case especially the risk vs rewards.  The last time stocks reached these levels were in the year 2000.

Let’s take a look at it’s financials.  They have had annual losses for 2009 and 2009.  Could they be finally getting out of their cold?  The economy is picking up, but consumers are still not buying.  If you’re unemployed, I’d bet you’d still have $60 to buy a game.  Anyways, long-term wise their financials do not look that good.   They have negative cash flow and net losses for the year.  However their game lineup is strong this year.

Games influence the price.  If Electronic Arts can get a ‘Modern Warfare 2’ effect, they will be able to hit profits again.  You’ve also seen it with Rockstar Games with Grand Theft Auto.  They just released Mass Effect 2 last week.  It has already sold over 2 million copies.  Especially with their lower guidance it makes their stock much average to what it should be priced out.  We’re looking for the future though.  If the games are good, the stock price will move with it.

In 2009, we saw a pretty mediocre lineup: Madden NFL, Battlefield, Fight Night, Dead Space, Tiger Woods Gold, Godfather Part 2, My Sim Party, Nascar Kart Racing, Skate 2, Lord of the Rings, and Mirror’s Edge.  These games did mildly well, some did bad, but none of them were blockbusters.  Here’s what is coming out in March 2010: Command & Conquer 4 (PC), Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (PC, PS3, XBOX).  These are two very strong games.  I’d say for the short-term 6 months there’s money to be made with ERTS.

I’ll be taking a further look into ERTS in the future.  If the market continues dropping, it might be better to wait it out before buying.  The stoichastics have already hit the lows for the daily and weekly.  The RSI(2) is weak also.  There could be continued downside for this stock as the video game industry continues to drop, but the long-term perspective continues to get better.