Super Stock Blog

Let's make our own bull run!

Month: May 2015

Seth Klarman Buys Ocwen, Should you?

Seth Klarman is a well-known billionaire stock investor that runs the Baupost fund.  He has a very great record of amassing big wealth through his value-based purchases.  In the past quarter, he bought Ocwen (OCN) that was over $55 just a couple years ago and then it reached bottom at $6 just this year.  He’s known to make safe investments that will do really well or else will only lose a little money at the end.  I think that is his strategy with this company.  As risky a play that Ocwen looks, it does look like it technically has hit the bottom and its time for it to rise.

Fundamentally, JP Morgan recently bought a bunch of Ocwen’s agency backed loans.  The company has also sold these loans to Nationstar as well.  The company wants to focus on non-agency subprime which they believe would make their customer service better for owners of these loans.

I recommend looking at OCN and putting a small percentage in it for a 20% gain at $12.  Also, a stop at $9 just in case things go sour!

Is Twitter a Value Play?

Warren Buffet calls a value play a business that is being under-valued.  If the stock book price is higher than the stock price, it is called a value stock and it would be a value play.  However, for Twitter, as much value as there is by the monetary definition, I see value in a different sense.

There is value in that Twitter brings a commodity that has true value in this world.  When something dramatic happens, Twitter is always the first one to be reporting it.  This means that a sudden world disaster, a catastrophe in a country, a large news story that breaks out, or even that innocent tweet that becomes something profound and gets popularized widely are all such things that only Twitter can provide to the public.  This is a value that only a product with true benefit to the world will succeed.

Twitter also continues to bring to bring new products online that follow their ‘live feed’ experience.  You can look at their Vine app that does live short videos.  Their latest creation Periscope is live stream that you can publicly view and record to show to the world.  Again, they are bringing value that helps the world spreads cultures, news, and beliefs that we would never hear about.  This is true value.

The stock closed on May 8, 2015 with a price of $37.59.  This is a great price to buy and it even becomes a better business for other companies to acquire.  If Google acquired Twitter, they would have an excellent advertising stream for their Adsense network.  They have already partnered with Twitter through their Doubleclick partnership to bring Twitter advertising to their ad platform.  If they see success, I see no doubt that Google would be interested in getting a bigger stake into Twitter especially at these prices.

I still believe Twitter is a great buy and I don’t see it going down much further.  There should be strong support around $35.