Super Stock Blog

Let's make our own bull run!

Month: March 2009

One More Big Drop Before We Have Clear Skies

That’s correct, I’m calling it.  Back in 2001-2002, we had over a 25% drop, then it went up, but it followed another huge 20% drop in the DOW market.  These two drops happened in a span of one year.  We’re facing a loan crisis that we should seriously not be able to come back from.  Japan attempted to bailout their country in the 1990s and still continue to face a stagnant economy that never fully recovered.  We just made a $1 trillion bailout plan to help fix the mortgage security problem.  The money does not exist, but the government is asking international parties, international banks, private investors and forcing tax payers to front some of the amount.  Suffice to say, we are the heart of the economy to the world.   We will survive and will come out stronger.  However, this might be the last time we get to push around other countries to help us.  China will continually try to move their economy from a US export economy to a domestic and international power house.

Back to the DOW, many analysts say we are bottoming out.  However, look at the 1980s oil crisis, you will also notice a 10% drop, a rise, and then another 10% drop.  We will face not only another drop, but possibly more than one.  Obama has been doing a great public campaign to persuade the people that there are better days.  We will survive this problem, but it’s not over yet.  I suggest investors continue to hold their cash in the bank or put it in CDs.  Wait some time to see where things go.  You’ll have a nice nest egg eventually to put in the stock market, but now is not the time.

RSO, Resource Capital Corp, Making it Happen

Resource Capital Corp, RSO, has reached highs going over 100% of its value in just one week.  The company runs a steady and conservative portfolio of commercial real estate loans that were most likely made during the late 1990s and early 2000s.  Only one single condo loan deal has been a default.  The others have been doing quite well.  It was at an all-time low on March 3, 2008 at $1.43.  Right now, it is at $3.87.  The company has a well established management team including  Jonathan Cohen and Leon Cooperman who have many years of real estate experience.

The recent $1 trillion dollar bailout was a huge stimulus to their stock price this week.  It started on monday moving from less than $2 to almost doubling which I would like to see by the end of this week.  President Obama’s $1 trillion bailout will secure all the mortgage securities making sure that these loans are paid off and the money keeps rolling in.  The dividend yield was set to be $0.30 per share for the upcoming quarter.  If you multiply that by 4, you get a yearly dividend of $1.20 almost 1/3 of the share value.  As a long-term stock, this will reap you many years of rewards.  Put it in your Roth IRA and just collect easy money.

You are Siriously Rich Now

If you followed my post from February 18, 2009, you are sitting on an almost 50% gain on Sirius.  This is an great gain vs what we are seeing in the market.  You can only get this type of gain from small companies and distressed companies.  Sirius hits both of these marks.  It has a great chance of going bankrupt, but when Liberty Media comes in and funds them millions to pay off their loans, they have a good chance of weathering this storm.  There must be something up their sleeves and it shows it with the closing price today at $0.235.  I, myself, am looking for the long-term gains and I will wait this one out.  It’s so cheap that the up-side is definitely much bigger than the downside.

Is it time to put our money back in?

Dow Jones moves up +379.44 to a magnificent 6,926 points.  This is an absurdly high increase in the DOW.  Two reasons are a big boost in Citi (C) and Bank of America (BAC) which are both part of the DOW top 20.  A profit report from the bank is huge, expect many more green things to be happening from stocks.  Short sellers will start getting more money out as they are seeing the bottom of the Dow.  However, this is not the bottom yet!  We haven’t hit below 6,500.  Once the stock prices hit below this mark, it will be a great time to start getting in the market and investing again.  I see the big boost as just a starting point of good things to happen, but don’t expect any big gains for at least another year.  We will see many more hills that look like ‘the rally’, but don’t be fooled.  We have a lot of rich people with tons of money that can manipulate the market every way they feel fit.  If you know how to play the short-term, you could probably make some dough selling on highs and buying on bottoms.

Let the Carnage Pan out…

Ouch!  Another eye-sore!  The dow has hit a all-time low of 6,793, something not seen since 1997.  I, for one, are starting to feel the fear in the market.  I thought things were bad enough when we broke 10,000, but at this rate, we are hitting new lows like there is no tomorrow.  There are still lots of quarterly earning reports that have to be reported, and I bet they are not looking good.  I’d hold off unless you are going to get some dividend stocks and just wait it out.

I wouldn’t expect anyone to start any purchases until the DOW hits 6,500.  It might be tomorrow, it might be in a month, but if you have the patience to wait it out, there will be good investments in the end.  Look for big names such as Wal-Mart (WMT) or Colgate (CL) to put your money in.  These names have continued to prosper during this time since their products are always necessary no matter what is happening in the economy.