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Category: Other Stock Tips (Page 2 of 3)

Where is the Bottom?

Oil has not reached the bottom yet, the dow hasn’t reached the 6500 point mark yet, where is the real bottom?  Of course looking at 2008, this is not a bad time to buy stocks if you are looking long term.  But buying at the bottom and timing the market has always been a losing proposition.  When people wait for the bottom, they will always miss the timing and miss the big stock hikes when it does happen.  This recession will be different though.  We have multiple banks getting bailed out and companies getting funding through the stimulus.  It will take at least a few years to get out of this mess.  In 2006, multiple countries starting slowing their funding into the U.S. Treasury and putting their money into other countries.  China slowed down their funding and is now continuing to grow their domestic products.  Europeans are putting less money in the US banks and also are putting it into strong currencies such as the Swiss Franc.

We are not in any normal recession.  From my advisors, they have suggested we will have one more drop in the stock market.  It appears it will happen sometime this summer.  ARM loans will soon expire in April, more foreclosures, more bankruptcies, more people in the gutter.  Take your time, be patient, and if you do wish to invest, get into commodities such as gold and wait it out!

United States Real Estate Prices Expected to Go Lower

Looking at the prices of real estate in the 2005-2006 levels, we had homes in California going over $500k-600k that have now dropped 30-40% from these levels.  The median price of a home in March 2007 as reported by C.A.R. was an astounding $582,930 for a single-family detached home.  In March 2008, this dropped 29% to $413,980.  The projected for 2009 will be at $358,000.  With federal interest rates at all-time lows 0-.25% and the trend continuing from December 2008, we can expect things to finally stop declining.  This does mean there will be huge changes but it does mean growth will finally begin and you can expect prices to start steadying out.

The line between interest rates and california housing prices is not a direct connection especially with the inflated house prices.  The prices we saw from 2005-2006 in California will not be those levels for quite a long time.  Also, remember prices move inversely with interest rates.  Nationally, when the interest rates start rising again which will probably be a while with the economy these days, the prices of the houses will have to decrease to retain affordability.  Before that even occurs, the housing price levels still need to fall furthur.

There’s no stock tips in this article, but some strong information concerning the real estate situation.  The California real estate is not representative of the whole national situation but it does help reflect many of the problems we are seeing nationally and I hope it helps clarify what to expect in the future.  Check out this link to see a bit more of where this housing trend will continue and what we should be doing right now.

Will the bleeding ever end?

This is most definitely the worst stock market crash since the 1929 Great Depression.  The stock market is about to reach a total drop of 50% from this year’s high.  This is an unprecedented amount of loss money that has never reached this bad before.  Jim Cramer stated last month that he expected the stock market to drop for another 20% before it might bottom out.  Many speculators and advisors are stating that the market will not start moving up until 2009.  So, how should you take advantage of the situation?

I was thinking of doing some short-selling and buying on the dips.  The stock market lately has been still dropping lower and lower.  We almost reached the Dow Jones low of 8,000 today.  Who knows, it might hit that mark tomorrow.  This might have also been the day to buy before another sky-rocketing jump.  I will wait this one out.  I know when inflation finally hits, you will see the precious metals, gold, and silver start moving up.  But it takes time for inflation to factor in and I do believe there is a good chance for more downtown.  There has been a lot of votalitiy in this market.  Hopefully we see some bottoming out soon and we can start trying out one of these strategies and gaining some of our hard earned cash back.

Was last week the bottom?

If you have been reading any of the news headlines, you’ll notice in big letters ‘AIG GOING BANKRUPT, GOVERNMENT SUMMONED TO HELP’.  We had a huge 500 point drop on monday and then many fluctuations the rest of the week.  Thursday and Friday showed a huge rally that pretty much covered the whole drop from the week.  The government’s bailout scheme worked and brought the market back up.  Good for us who own stocks, bad for everyone else because we will all be part of the bailout helping the government pay out those taxes.

Tomorrow, we will either see another drop in stocks or see the stocks rise as part of the usual election rally.  I see a good chance of it dropping as short-selling is being banned for the rest of the year, which will artifically make the market rise temporarily, but finally drop again as people will just start selling the stocks.  Again, with last weeks’ news headlines like the Wall Street Journal’s big letter ‘CRISIS ON WALL STREET’, the blood might already be on the streets and its time for the recovery.  I do believe we will finally see a rise in the stocks before the year’s end.  If not the election rally, there will be the usual year-end rally.  I’m looking at november to be key.  But if you are in the stocks like me and don’t need the money right away, just hold on those stocks and let’s ride with the market.

Commodities Just Keep On Dropping

Will the hurting ever stop?  Silver stocks are falling, oil stocks are dropping, and all of the energy stocks are going down.  Its funny to see the financials actually moving up in this turmoil.  I do believe the commodities are due for an up-turn.  If you take a look at the silver, the prices have dropped below $13 an ounce.  This year it hit an high over $20 an ounce.  I’m hoping it starts moving up earlier than later.  Make my CDE move up, not down 🙂

No matter what happens in the presidential election there will be a place for uranium.  Nuclear energy will be the next strong point to fixing our energy problems.  Nuclear energy is clean and has many more safty measures than in the past to keep things safe.  Look for stocks like USU to go up.

Another material to start watching is steel.  These stocks have dropped over 20% within the week.  Termium (TX) has a forward PE of 3.5.  It’s the lowest I’ve seen for such a big company.  One thing that kept it dropping was the nationalization of the Sidor mine in Venezuela.  It dropped more when the sale negotiations with the president did not work out.  You can bet that this stock is close to its low and its time for it to start moving up again.

Fannie Mae and Freddic Mac Rising to Big Cash or Another Fake

Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) having almost doubled their stock prices within the last five days.  Last week, on Friday, they were both stated to be going bankrupt, out of cash, and the government would be better off just letting them die off.  The reasoning was the amount of cash to keep them up within the billions would leave little to cover other costs.  The FDIC after the IndyMac failure only has so much money to cover other banks that go bankrupt.  I heard the early 90s had the same bank problems.

Now, I do think the economy has only one way to go, UP!  It’s been so bad lately with the foreclosures and banks failures, but I do believe we are slowly recovering.  I also don’t think the government will let these two mortgage lenders go down the hole.  If you knock over one domino, you’d be sure to hit many more down the ways.  If these two fall down, the hurting will not stop for quite a long time.

I also believe George Bush is in part of this.  This economy is pretty crappy and it works to the Republicans advantage.  They are about helping businesses and cutting taxes.  These are two things that all Americans are looking at currently.  You can be sure when the elections come in November that it will have some impact on their vote.  This especially with the amount of people unemployed and the continuing growth of inflation.

When election time is done and the votes are in, John McCain or Barack Obama will be in office.  No matter who wins, you can bet the stock market will finally rise.  All those banks shorting stocks will finally cover.  People holding onto their money will start investing again.  Good riddens George Bush!  Either guy will definitely do a better job than him.

Anyways, there should be a dip coming up next week for those short sellers.  However, long-term expect these two mortgage lenders to go up.  They will not go bankrupt.  Banks might be short selling them but they know they can only fall with them if they belly up.

I have not written for a while, but last friday, I did buy some sharts of Fannie Mae.  I sold on Monday, bleh!  I made a few hundred bucks, but if I see a good opening again, I’ll buy and let you know.  I bought very quickly on friday when I saw the really, really low price in the stock.  I wanted to buy and sell it’s recovery and it worked out perfectly.  I might do more quick buys and sells if it continues to work.

Long-term: commodities will continue to move up.  Silver and gold need to rise as inflation rises.

Financial Stocks Bottomed Out?

On Seeking Alpha, there was an article that stated that the DOW bottomed out at July 31, 2008.  It also stated that the financial stocks had bottomed out too.  How can we find out if this is true?  First, Bank of America has finally moved up.  It was at a bottom of $20 but now currently trades at $30.  One stock in particular that has unlimited potential but contains lots of risk is Washington Mutual (WM).

Washington Mutual is trading in the $5s to which a few months ago it traded as high as $50.  In the past few days, there has been heavy institutional buying.  I do not know what these guys know, but I’m for sure one to look more into this stock.  If it hits $5, I will put some money down and take the risk.  For such a cheap price, you could lose your cash but you could also hit a gem that will never see this price again.  I do believe most of the subprime loans have already been factored into this stock.  Even though there will continue to be more foreclosures and bankruptcies, I think the stock traders have already took this stock to the cleaners.  The dividend has been cut which is good for the company so it can start raising money.

I personally use Washington Mutual for some of my bank transactions.  It has been so far a smooth ride and I doubt it will be a bank to fail.  There is a potential chance for a buy-out and it be nice to get part of that cash that flows into it.

Valueclick hitting lows!

VCLK, an internet advertising agency, is hitting lows not seen since 2003.  This stock rallied to highs of $30 back in 2006 to 2007.  It went up as the economy continued to prosper.  Finally, it has hit reality and is coming down with the economy.  At the price right now of closing today at $10.18, it has pretty much hit the bottom.  This company has really good fundamentals, and when the economy starts moving up again, you can bet this stock will start moving up too.  It has some good names in it, such as Commission Junction, which is the most popular internet affiliate marketing company.  It also has Price Grabber, a price comparison engine, which is very popular in London and it has growing popularity in America.  They are positioning to internationalize many of their websites and take advantage of the globalization.  I do think their management could do a little re-structuring, but fundamentally, they will eventually take off to over $20 per share.

Missing out on the Great Deals

When the DOW went below 11,000, I should have taken that as a sign to put more cash into the stock market.  There were blue chips that were being rocked hard and taking a huge beating.  The four stocks particularly were Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), General Motors (GM), and Ford (F).  These were all great short buy candidates and they all sky-rocketed at the end of this crazy week.

The early part of the week had the DOW hitting new lows.  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two of the most renown mortgage loan companies, were stating they they had finally made too many foreclosed loans and they would have to find ways to establish funding.  These two companies are the life-line of 50% of America’s mortgages.  It would be a huge shame of they were to go under.  Stock prices dropped to less than $10 on each company as people started short selling to stock.  I knew these companies would eventually be funded by the government.  They will not let these companies take down the economy.  It would be a disaster in the United States’ economy.  I should have seen these signs and bought early.  Both of these stocks doubled at the end of the week.

The next two companies made a pretty fast drop this year to which one company hit a 50-time all year low and the other hit a low not seen for 20 years.  These are both America car companies that have been running since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to which one had created the first car and the other, General Motors, has been a respectable car company building cars for the United States since the early beginnings.  These two were a harder speculation because oil could have kept going down.  Both of these stocks increased to 20% at the end of the week.

Bottoming Stock Market?

The last time the Dow was around 11,800 was in early March 2008.  We have either hit the bottom and will move up, or it is going to continue the down fall.  Tomorrow, it should be an up day as we have had more than a few days of big drops.  The last two trading days were trying to move up but we would have sells at the same time.  If it does fall more, I don’t think we will see much more lowering.  The inflation rate cuts usually take 6-12 months to get into effect.  The rate cuts happened in late December so we should start seeing the results of them very soon.  However, I do believe inflation is going to continue to make its mark and we will see increases in price for all the goods.  If you have cash, it would be a great time to find stocks you like and buy them on the cheap.

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