Super Stock Blog

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PayPal for the Long-Term

PayPal (PYPL) recently released earnings and guidance late last week.  The results were excellent and even the guidance showed amazing growth for the upcoming quarter and year ahead.  The CEO and CFO mentioned that on their conference call that the guidance shows a strengthening business outlook moving forward.  PayPal mentioned that Venmo, one of the most popular payment platforms, has grown quite a lot and is now showing revenue instead of just engagement.  The company has purchased multiple e-payment platforms to strengthen their business and grow their bottom line.

However, from last friday-tuesday, the PayPal stock price continued to drop with the FANG stocks.  From a price last week over $92, it has dropped to almost $82 in the past week.  This gives you a nice 10% discount from the current price.  If the tech stocks continue to trend down, PayPal will continue to downtrend with them.  However, I believe PayPal is a strong candidate for long-term growth and I expect it to grow leaps and bounds in the future.

I believe PayPal (PYPL) is a great buy anything below $80 and I expect it to be a nice long-term hold.

DexCom Inc

Dexcom (DXCM) is a company that creates technologies to monitor glucose in people with diabetes.  Their stock price has been in a surge since March going from $55 to be over $100 in the past month.  However, their competitor Abbott (ABT) is interested in their same market and is coming up quick with their own technologies to compete.  Just this morning, Abbott’s new technology FreeStyle Libre was approved by the FDA.

This has dropped Dexcom today to as low as $93 per share.  As a company that specializes in glucose monitoring you know that they are advancing technology just like Abbott but you must also know that they already have their technology out in the marketplace helping diabetes patients through many countries.  They also plan to expand globally to help diabetics throughout the world.  An article on SeekingAlpha mentioned a value of $130 for Dexcom.

I give this stock a price target of $110 which should give you a nice 10% gain from the current price.

NXP Semiconductors

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) was supposed to be purchased by Qualcomm (QCOM) for a stock share price of $127.50.  It was announced yesterday that if China does not authorize the merger then Qualcomm would walk on the deal and give NXPI a $2 billion break up fee and cancel the merger.  Today, China has not said anything and Qualcomm is walking.

NXP Semiconductor will soon have an extra $2 billion in its bank account.  The current rumor is that the extra money will be used for a big $5 billion buyback or even a special dividend.  Either way, it is great for shareholders especially since the stock has plummetted from over $120 to now an undervalued price at $91.

There is certainly plenty of volatility and even a chance that the stock price will go further down.  However, for the long-term investor, this is a great value.  Yahoo analysts give an average EPS for next year at 7.72.  This is a PE of 11.78 at the current price.  This price is indeed a bargain.

There is plenty of growth moving forward for this company.  In June, NXP Semiconductors introduced semiconductors for use in high powered RF products for 5g networks.  The company also is creating a new line of chips that make it easier for companies building AI tools.  If you just look at the present-day, their embedded chips are already used in factories and automobiles.

With a strong base of current customers using their technologies and a nice set of future chips that will grow the company in the future, there is plenty to get excited about with NXP Semiconductors.  I see this stock as a purchase below $92.  I also believe it will make a nice sell at any price at $120 which should happen in 2-3 years.

Disclosure: I am long NXPI and I purchased today.

REITs with BIG Dividend

CBL & Associates Properties Inc (CBL) and Washington Prime Group (WPG) are both mall REITs that pay a substantial dividend since their stock price has plummetted over the past year. As this time, WPG offers a 16.5% dividend while CBL is offering 18.45% dividend.  Both stocks were able to beat and surpass the earnings guidance for the past quarter.  This is the first time they have done it in the past couple years so their stock prices have appreciated in the past month.

Out of the two, CBL & Associates Properties Inc (CBL) is valued lower in the two because the CEO last year mentioned that they would need to cut the dividend which caused a big price drop.  Therefore, on a stock price basis, CBL is the cheaper of the bunch.  Both invest in malls throughout the United States and both carry substantial risk but if you feel the retail apocalypse is over then it should be a good time to pick either stock up.

Silver Miners vs Silver ETF

I posted an article last week about purchasing ETFS Physical Silver (SILV), a silver ETF, and First Magestic (AG), a silver miner.  There is quite a difference between the two and I would like to explain when it is best to get into both.

First, the silver ETFs follow the silver price.  Some of them hold physical silver like SILV and others purchase silver futures.  I recommend SILV over other silver ETFs like SLV because it has a lower expense ratio.  Since silver prices are quite low and inflation is in the works, I feel that the price cannot go down much lower.  The gold-silver ratio is also over 80 which means there is a higher chance that silver is bottoming out.

Next, I recommended First Magestic (AG).  This is a silver mining stock that is quite low and I do think it is finally hitting a bottom.  There is additional risk in silver miners as a lower silver price means the stock goes down much quicker than silver ETFs.  This also means when the silver price goes up that silver mining stocks can go up to 3x or 4x higher.

I recommend getting into both at this time.  If you don’t like the additional risk, I recommend purchasing the SIVR silver ETF.

High Gold-Silver Ratio and First Majestic

The gold-silver ratio has broken the 80-1 threshold.  This ratio usually implies that the silver price is so low that its time for a reversal which means higher silver prices coming soon.  To play this speculation, I recommend either getting a silver ETF such as SIVR which has the lowest expense ratio or SLV which is a popular silver ETF.  The volatility on both these ETFs are rather low so I don’t see much downside.  I also think if there is a recession or inflation that silver will go up in price.

For those that like leverage, silver miners are a great way to take advantage.  First Magestic (AG) is at a 52-week low and it continues to go lower!  I do think it should be bottoming soon especially if silver prices start rising again.  You do have more risk but if silver prices goes up then this will spike up 3-4 times more than the silver ETFs.

Cash is King. Easing off HABT.

I mentioned Habit (HABT) as being a nice buy-and-hold.  It was making a nice run until the last quarterly report which took the stock for a nose dive.  I still believe this will be a nice stock in the long-term but there are many factors that are causing this stock to not be as nice investment for the short-term that has caused me to get rid of it in my stock portfolio.

First, the quarterly report was rather bearish on the guidance.  It was stated to be much lower than expected.  The minimum wage rising per hour will also cause more disruption for the revenues.

Second, regarding the market, Lowes (LOW) recently had a bearish outlook to their guidance.  If you look at Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (LOW), technically, there stock price is trending downward.  Remember in the last recession, these were leading indicators that eventually led to the recession.

Again, use your own due diligence, but in the point in the market, I rather be more conservative and wait to invest during the downturn.  I was heavily invested before the last recession which meant I did take many losses as other investors did.  I rather have some reserves this time to get bargains during the next downturn.

Mall REITs still a Good Buy

As I mentioned in the previous post, mall REITs continue to be a good buy.  First it was JCPenney that had a bad quarter.  Then, Foot Locker also showed a bad quarter that also caused a drop in retail stocks and mall REITs.  WPG, Washington Prime Group, had plenty of cash flow to cover these retail shops revenue drop.  This includes paying the dividend to investors.  There is always the challenge in playing defensive in this space.  I believe playing defensive means making sure you have the cash flow to back up any investment that you take in.  This is especially true in this cycle in the stock market where things are all overvalued.  You want to find industries that are weak where there is an opportune time to purchase and that you know in the long-term will be valued correctly.

This is why Mall REITs are a good investment but the reason I recommend WPG is that it pays a strong dividend that is over 10%.  It also is a small mall REIT that are mostly based outdoors and have a strong diverse base of retail restaurants and shops that will be able to take on the downturn that some of the retail stores that will affect its sales.  It also is taking steps to transition stores like Sears, JcPenney, and Foot Locker to more stable tenants.  I believe the dividend will keep you protected in the long run as well.

Outside the mall REITs, Target had a good quarter recently.  It is a bigger player and a challenger to Amazon.  It isn’t without the risk but it does pay a nice 4% dividend.  Having been able to turn a nice quarter in a dismal retail quarter for most companies shows that Target is able to withstand the market issues and handle the situation.

I recommend investors look at both WPG and TGT for long-term buy and hold plays.  I do own both in a retirement account.

JCPenney Affecting Mall REITS

JcPenney (JCP) had a huge drop this morning in stock price over 17% as of right now.  This was due to declines in profit and same-store sales.  Of course, this is having a huge affect on Mall REITs including one that we current invest in Washington Prime Group (WPG).

Washington Prime Group has a very small percentage of rent that comes from JcPenney. This amounts to less than 2% of the rent.  Again, Sears (SHLD) also is a renter of this mall reit but also accounts for less than 2% and most likely without further due diligence I believe sears is only accounting for 1% of the annual base rent that WPG receives on an annual basis.

For someone that has some retirement funds setup, this is a great time to get into Washington Prime Group and collect a massive dividend at over 10%.

For the fundamental trader, this is a great mall reit that should pay off handsomely in dividends and appreciation as there isn’t much more downside to mall reits.  We all know that Amazon (AMZN) wants in the retail space and purchased Whole Foods for billions of dollars.

For the technical trader, there is a bearish cross which means there is further downside.  I’m not too sure about this but it did break the support at $8.50 today so it is possible to get a better price by waiting it out.

Is NexGen Energy poised to be bigger than Cameco?

Nexgen Energy (NXE) is a recent uranium company that has come into my radar.  I posted numerous times about another company called Energy Fuels Inc (UUUU) but Nexgen Energy appears to be in a better fundamental standpoint.  First, it has discovered multiple uranium deposits and the company continues to find more even the past week.  Second, the uranium deposits are of higher quality than the current mines currently out there.  Third, these deposits are close to the same amounts that Cameco (CCJ) and are poised to overtake the amount of uranium in comparison.

Nexgen Energy is a $750 million cap company while Cameco is a $3.7 billion cap company.  If it were to have equal uranium deposits, there is plenty of growth for Nextgen Energy to grow in the future.  It also recently received $110 million in funding from CEF Holdings.  This company is part of a larger conglomerate of businesses controlled by Li Ka-Shing who also is known as the “asian Warren Buffett”.  He invests in many asian countries and knows the market very well.

China is a energy hungry country that is in process of constructing and completing multiple nuclear plants in the next decade.  Li Ka-Shing knows the market going forward and that uranium will be a necessary commodity for China to fuel their nuclear power plants.  It makes sense that he would accumulate shares in this smaller company that would give him a bigger stake in ownership.  I do believe their is a chance of being acquired in the future but the fundamentals show that Nexgen Energy will have a bullish future ahead as well.

Disclosure: I did recently purchase NXE by selling some of my holdings in UUUU.

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