Super Stock Blog

Posts Tagged ‘stocks’

I'm thinking, if the market has hit the bottom, then now is the time to buy shares.

Buy a Position here (50% of the money you are willing to invest) if the market continues to drop you buy in more and lower your cost basis.

let's hope this is close to bottom. However, I'm holding and not buying right now. I don't want to suffer more if the market dips further.

You may be right and you may be wrong about the bottoming out of stock prices. neither you nor anybody else can know for sure what will happen next.

And this means that you will be taking a risk, if you buy stocks now. and perhaps this risk is bigger now than before. Because now stock price volatility is higher than before.

With higher volatility you can make more money, if the stock price moves your way. But you can also loose more money, if the stock price goes against you.

The greater the potential reward, the greater is the risk you have to take.

Since I am the ONLY psychic who has ever been able to predict the stock market, and I have never been wrong yet, here is my prediction:

The stock market will continue to fluctuate.

Yes, what the Fed has done is only a band-aid by creating more money to increase liquidity. Eventually you can't stretch the rubber band anymore. IMHO, invest in physical gold, silver, and then good related stocks not known to hedge and finally oil stocks.

Time to buy is everyone is selling or there is blood on the street.
And time to sell when everyone starts to buy.

No one can ever tell when the markets have bottomed or peaked.
Expect a further fall of at least 10% from current levels.

It is possible – there are traders who use computers with trigger values so when the market dips like this the machines start selling and the prices dip lower. A lot of these automated trade are used by index trackers so the whole market is dragged down by the whole market – there has been a lot of discussion just how far this kind of trading would take the market down – on the other hand maybe the trackers have switched their toys off1

Do you think that the world stock market prices will fall further?

roughly,how much money do I have to pay a stock broker?and also is it possible to lose 100% or more of the money I invest?

as far as stocks if you go online they have $7 trades, mutual funds charge their own fees in addition. brokerages have it set up pretty good so you wont blow more than your original sum..if you trade on margin they cut you off at a 50% loss usually.

Stock Market Investing for a Dummy?

NEW YORK: Wall Street will see the year-end rally carry into the last week of 2010 but the question on everyone’s mind is, “what’s next?”

Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and the Nasdaq on Thursday were up more than 5% on the month and the level of optimism in the market was at a six-year high. The CBOE Volatility Index VIX, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, was down by two-thirds from this year’s peak in May.

“I would think that the Santa Claus rally will continue into next week as there are still lots of mutual funds trying to beat or at least meet the performance of the S&P 500 within the calendar year of 2010,” said TD Ameritrade’s chief derivatives strategist, Joe Kinahan, based in Chicago. “The VIX is also telling us that the market is expecting low volatility, which would also support upside movement.”

Some contrarian analysts were more cautious as optimism at peak levels is usually a sign of a pullback and thus, negative for equities.

US stocks racked up a fourth straight week of gains on Thursday, as investors expected optimism about the economic recovery to support equities through year-end.

Jim Rogers, he's on Bloomberg and other stations all the time, is huge on commodities. He says to buy agriculture, how does one go about doing that?

Mutual Fund in "basic materials" check there main stocks but most are in agriculture. here is a list that come up in my screener . I'm not giving any pro-con of the funds listed below. Just somewhere to start looking.

Fund Symbol
Fund Name Characteristics Classification Fund Family last Price* NAV
FMFAX
Fidelity Adv Matrls;A Basic Materials… FIDELITY MANAGE… 32.45 32.45
FMFBX
Fidelity Adv Matrls;B Basic Materials… FIDELITY MANAGE… 32.05 32.05
FMFCX
Fidelity Adv Matrls;C Basic Materials… FIDELITY MANAGE… 32.00 32.00
FMFEX
Fidelity Adv Matrls;I Basic Materials… FIDELITY MANAGE… 32.52 32.52
FMFTX
Fidelity Adv Matrls;T Basic Materials… FIDELITY MANAGE… 32.27 32.27
FSCHX
Fidelity Sel Chemicals Basic Materials… FIDELITY MANAGE… 55.74 55.74
FSDPX
Fidelity Sel Materials Basic Materials… FIDELITY MANAGE… 32.52 32.52
ICBMX
ICON:Materials Basic Materials… ICON FUNDS 7.94 7.94
RYBAX
Rydex:Basic Material;Adv Basic Materials… RYDEX INVESTMEN… 26.39 26.39
RYBCX
Rydex:Basic Material;C Basic Materials… RYDEX INVESTMEN… 25.63 25.63
RYBIX
Rydex:Basic Material;Inv Basic Materials… RYDEX INVESTMEN… 27.69 27.69
RYBMX
Rydex:Basic Material;A Basic Materials… RYDEX INVESTMEN… 26.72 26.72

DBA is an ETF investing in Agriculture

rja is one of his funds

Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF AMEX:MOO

Jim Rogers says buy agriculture?

Listed entities in Australia having a tougher time getting back on track as corporates deleverage are geared infrastructure stocks.

Just in the past two weeks, we’ve seen Alinta being rescued, with the inevitable annihilation of shareholders’ equity, and then just last week we saw Spark Infrastructure launch a $295 million share issue at a discount to pay down debt in the stock at the top of the pile, the listed entity.

Alinta had been on life support since about September last year because of massive debt that dated from its previous incarnation as Babcock & Brown Power. Spark management has been well regarded for its decision to grasp the nettle and raise equity, even if the $1 issue price is at a 13 per cent discount to the previous trade.

Investors are now wondering which stock will be next to need a restructure: there may well be more than one, but one of the stronger candidates is DUET group. most of these stocks share a similar bull market, low interest rate environment structure in which the payment of a nice yield from the head stock is a huge selling point, and both the downstream companies and the holding company at the top are quite significantly geared.

What’s happened since the global financial crisis is that lenders have got a lot more leery about lending money to holding companies. in some cases, there are new financial covenants being imposed on the operating companies that prevent them from passing money up the line to the holding company at the top of the tree. That’s what’s called a distribution lock-up.

This is not to say there is a disaster looming at DUET, which is jointly managed by Macquarie Capital and AMP Capital Investors. It has got some excellent assets, such as a 60 per cent stake in the Dampier-to-Bunbury gas pipeline. but what has effectively happened is that the goalposts have been moved by the myriad lenders to these complex structures and it’s no longer possible to move money around to make sure, for instance, that the nice 20c a unit annual distribution by the listed entity DUET continues unmolested.

After all, the lenders to the operating companies aren’t necessarily the same as the lenders to the holding companies and the last thing the former group want is to see money fly upstream while there’s any question of the operating company covering its interest bill. And that’s a real question. for instance, DUET owns just under 80 per cent of a company called Multinet, which generated just over $100m in cashflow last financial year. the problem is that Multinet had to pay $120m to its lenders, both principal and interest, plus it had to distribute $29m to its shareholders, mostly DUET. It’s interesting to note that Multinet shareholders invested the same amount, $29m, in new equity issued by Multinet.

Without that $29m payment up the line, DUET would have had a 13 per cent deficit between its net cash income and the distributions it declared to investors. You can see the problem. in some parts of the structure money is going out faster than it is coming in and it is only thanks to some nifty equity raising lower down the tree that the books have been able to balance.

There is one simple solution: put some more equity in at the top. That’s what Spark’s doing. but so far DUET chief executive Peter Barry has said he won’t do that. "We are comfortable we have sufficient cash to meet our commitments," he said recently in relation to financing an increased investment in Victorian power group United Energy Distribution, of which it owns 66 per cent.

Just on that, last week Standard & Poor’s put United Energy’s BBB credit rating on "negative" outlook. UED, as it is called, paid $60m in distributions last year of which DUET got $39m. A Merrill Lynch note on the S&P query said that either an equity injection from DUET and another UED shareholder, Singapore Power, "or a retention of cash at the asset level" (ie suspending dividend payments back to the likes of DUET) would be necessary to return United Energy’s outlook back to "stable".

Barry, who is well regarded, may yet find that DUET doesn’t have a lot of options other than to raise more equity.

One analysis the Australian has seen suggests that even if DUET puts no more money into the downstream operating companies and cuts back its distributions to a maximum of 100 per cent of the money coming in from those operating companies (you read that correctly) then it may still need to cut its 20c a year distributions to its shareholders by "at least 20 per cent."

DUET’s well publicised plan is to sell its 29 per cent interest in Pittsburg utility Duquesne Light for what might come out at around $470m, which is in line with where DUET got in. Final offers for the Duquesne asset are due in shortly.

<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/duet-may-be-due-for-a-revamp/story-e6frg8zx-1225929702393tag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/duet-may-be-due-for-a-revamp/story-e6frg8zx-1225929702393Sun, 26 Sep 2010 14:04:54 GMT 00:00″>DUET may be due for a revamp

I read in a newsweek artical that farmers would be doing very well during this recession. Jim Rogers said that something to the effect that farmers would be driving lamborghinis and stock brokers would be working for them. So, is now the time to get into companies like Deere and POT? what are your thoughts?

Then I would invest in lamborghinis. But most of them drive Cadilacs and Lincolns and Chevy Pickups.

Would now be a good time to get into commodities/farm stocks?

Contributed by: Arjun Rudra (http://www.investingthesis.com) –

There exist a number of ways investors can screen for stocks. one of these ways involves screening for companies that exhibit high returns on equity (ROE). ROE is a very good yardstick by which to measure how well the management of a company creates value for its shareholders. However, as with everything the ROE statistics has it foibles and can be artificially inflated. To dig a bit deeper into what ROE is and how it translates into investment performance, we are super excited today to present to you an interview with a portfolio manager that relies heavily on the use of return on equity as a screening tool. His name is Jason Donville of Donville Kent Asset Management and he manages 2 funds on behalf of individual investors as well as select institutions, namely the Capital Ideas Fund, which was voted the Best New Fund in Canada for 2009 at the Canadian Hedge Fund Awards and the Financial Services Fund. take a second to sign up to our RSS feed or to subscribe to our updates via email for a follow-up to this interview with Jason’s top stock picks in a few weeks time.

Biography: Jason has had an illustrious career as an award-winning analyst in both Asia and Canada. Prior to founding DKAM, Mr. Donville was consistently ranked as one of the top financial services analysts in the country. in 2004 and 2005, Mr. Donville was ranked in all three financial services research categories (banks, insurance and diversified financial services) in the annual Brendan Woods surveys. Mr. Donville was also recognized as the top Stock Picker in Diversified Financial Services in the 2004 and 2005 National Post/Starmine surveys, and ranked number 3 for forecast accuracy in 2004 in the same survey.

Q: Warren Buffett has often pointed out that the return that a company gets on its equity is one of the most important factors in making successful stock investments. Mr. Donville, why don’t you start off by telling us why you consider the Return on Equity metric so important as opposed to Return on Assets or Price to Cash Flow?

A: We consider Return on Equity (ROE) to be the key starting point for any company we look at because we believe the key value driver of any company is its ability to earn a return on equity that is substantially higher than its cost of equity. However, we don’t simply stop at ROE. A company can achieve a high ROE in many ways and we use DuPont analysis to drill down into the ways in which a company earns a high ROE. Typically a high ROE (greater than 15%) can be achieved in one of three ways. these are 1) leverage 2) margins or 3) asset turnover. We generally avoid highly levered companies. about 95% of the companies we own have high profit margins and about 5% have high asset turnover ratios. Typically, companies with high ROE’s also have high ROA’s but we start with ROE first because it requires less adjustments when screening large numbers of companies. We consider Price to Cash Flow to be a valuation metric and valuation is the second but separate stage of our investment process.

Q: There area number of ways to calculate ROE from the most simple being Net Profit ÷ Average Shareholder Equity to the more complex DuPont Model, which is Profit Margin (Profit/Sales) * Total Asset Turnover (Sales/Assets) * Equity Multiplier (Assets/Equity). Mr. Donville, which of these formulas do you utilize in your calculations of ROE or is it a variant/combination of these?

A: We use both. in our main database we use net profit/average common shareholders equity to screen large populations of stocks. But once we see something we like we use DuPont analysis to drill down and understand where a companies ROE is coming from. We consider DuPont analysis to be one of the most valuable tools in the entire investment world.

Q: in addition to a high ROE, what other valuation/operating metrics do you pay close attention to, Mr. Donville? Additionally, when assessing a company’s viability as an investment, do you find discounted cash flow analysis (DCF) helpful or do you rely primarily on values that are readily ascertainable on a company’s balance sheet?

A: We look at working capital management because we find that there are times when it is difficult to be objective about a company’s management. Working capital management (inventory days, accounts receivable management, etc) is like a form of DNA for a company – its their signature of how good they are as managers that they cant hide. We also think quality of management is important but you need to have repeated exposure to management to get a really good read as to which managers know their stuff and which don’t. when we are just starting out with a new company, working capital management is a good proxy because good managers typically run tight ships and this is reflected in working capital management.

From a DCF perspective, we have a calculator that we use that is based on EVA (Economic Value-Added) analysis and it is very good at showing us how valuable a high ROE company is. that said, when we find a company with an ROE of say 20% and its trading on a PE ratio of less than 10 and has a low dividend payout ratio, we know before we even look at our DCF/EVA model that its extremely undervalued.

Q: How do you generate your investment ideas?

A: We try to read a lot of research and troll through a lot of databases looking for high ROE companies. once we find them we try to meet with management as quickly as possible and we try to ascertain how sustainable the high ROE is. once we are convinced that we have found such a company we start buying the stock.

Q: We try to read a lot of research and troll through a lot of databases looking for high ROE companies. once we find them we try to meet with management as quickly as possible and we try to ascertain how sustainable the high ROE is. once we are convinced that we have found such a company we start buying the stock.

A: Alpha can come from many sources and we view our core competency as being stock pickers. We generally don’t use much leverage but we use a lot of concentration. Our top 5 positions typically account for 50% of the entire portfolio and our top 10 names would account for 75% of the portfolio. We have shorts on from time to time but we see ourselves as primarily a long fund.

Q: Before we head to your views on the equity markets, Mr. Donville, I wanted to ask you a question on position sizing. outside of using options and derivates, I think the sizing of positions in one’s portfolios is integral to controlling risk. What are your thoughts on this subject, Mr. Donville and what criteria do you use to decide the size of stakes you acquire in companies?

A: We tend to hold highly concentrated positions but we also tend to buy stocks on the way up. We rarely if ever average down and we never buy a large position all at once. We want to see the upward movement in the stock validate that we are correct in assuming that the said company is undervalued.

Q: in your July 2010 newsletter (the ROE Reporter), Mr. Donville, you opine that the pessimism we have been hearing about is overdone and that you think the Canadian and US markets are heading higher. While there appears to be a tug of war between the bulls and bears with regards to inflation/deflation and the state of economy, there appears to be clear evidence from multinationals that emerging markets is where the growth is at. my question for you Sir is how much exposure do you have to the emerging markets in your portfolio and to what particular sectors?

A: Neither of my funds has an emerging market mandate.

Q: Finally, what books have you read in recent years that have stood out as valuable additions to your investment library?

A: I have a voracious appetite for investment books and if you come to my office you will see that my book shelves are stuffed with investment books. Two books I have read recently that I would highly recommend are as follows. The first is The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit From the New World of Money by Tony Boeckh who has been the brains behind the Bank Credit Analyst for more than 30 years. this book provides a very thorough overview of the macroeconomic factors that have gotten us to where we are today and Boeckh’s writing style is very engaging. The second book that I have read is The big Short by Michael Lewis which is ostensibly about the subprime meltdown in the US. However, like so many other books by Lewis such as Liar’s Poker, The New New Thing, Moneyball and The Blind Side, half the value of this book is in its story telling style. I think Lewis is as gifted a writer as Malcolm Gladwell and Lewis is arguably stronger when it comes to telling long intricate stories that require the reader to stay engaged for 300 pages or more. I also would recommend anything written by Michael Mauboussin , Aswath Damodaran, and Ron Chernow, all three of whom I rate extremely highly.

Thank You, Mr. Donville!

Do you pay attention to the ROE when researching an equity? let us know what you thought of this interview or anything else about the site in the comments.

Related posts:

1. Interview with Martin Braun of Adaly Investment Management Corp.
2. Musings on Crude Oil, Natural Gas and the Outlook on Energy with John Stephenson of first Asset Funds
3. 5 Canadian Portfolio Managers You Should Follow

An Interview With Portfolio Manager Jason Donville of Donville Kent Asset Management

 Look at the 6 month chart below of the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC). it looks like a roller-coaster at six Flags and shows lots of volatility with some pronounced pull-backs. I've included the 100-day moving average

On commodities generally, there was a good interview with Jim Rogers in a July edition of The Globe and Mail  in Canada.Rogers called the great commodity bull market and he is himself a rich man thanks to his investing prowess.As a result, people seek out his opinion on commodities. even though commodities of all kinds have taken a hit in this crisis, the longer-term dynamics still look strong. As Rogers put it: “Did the stock market bull market in end in 1987, when stocks fell around the world fell 40-80%?” No, it didn’t.  The point Rogers makes is that even in the course of longer-term bull markets, there can be stiff corrections. even now, though, the fundamentals for owning commodities — and the stocks that benefit from rising commodity prices — are still intact. As a result, they look very appealing in this uncertain market.  As Rogers says: “I’d rather own commodities than just about anything I can think of… Commodities have a long way to go; the fundamentals have only gotten better in the last year. The best place to have your money is in commodities… most of them are going to make new all-time highs.” I tend to agree. We’re in good position to benefit from the unfolding commodity bull market. Precious metals and energy will lead the way in the next couple of years as well as some of the base metals and perhaps uranium. Jim Rogers, who lives most of the time in Singapore, really knows how to "think outside the box" when it comes to investing. Describing his favorite type of investment,Rogers is renowned for saying in the traders' bible, Market Wizards… "I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up."  his point was clear… if you wait for a low-risk,over-looked lucrative trading opportunity you're more likely to make an exceptional profit and reduce your risk.   "The government is printing lots of money and borrowing even more; that's not the basis for a sound currency," he told Bloomberg in a telephone interview this summer. "The idea that anybody would lend money to the U.S. government for 30 years at three or four or five or six percent interest is mind-boggling to me."Rogers said he's unloading dollars, and he plans to "short U.S. government bonds someday."And it wouldn't surprise me if he starts shorting the U.S. stock market indices when they really get bloated (perhaps after another 10 to 20% rise from here). 

Dorothy Kosich on Monday filed a report through Mineweb.com that reminds us of the Swiiss perspective on commodities, and that seems to be one of their strong suits. she wrote:

"In recently published research, Credit Suisse metals and mining analysts say they are "selectively bullish" on certain commodities-such as copper, zinc, carbon steel, platinum and nickel-and remain "long-term bullish" on commodity demand driven by demographics and global infrastructure spend.

"Credit Suisse's analysis suggests we are currently in a growth period for long-term commodity demand driven by the ongoing industrialization of China and emerging markets; global demographic shifts that will drive commodity-intensive demand for infrastructure; and by a wealth-transfer effect which requires infrastructure that is the "single greatest driver of long-term commodity demand."

"Research analysts Michael Sillaker, Elly Ong, Alessandro Abate, and Hannah Kirby wrote, "We believe global industrialization will continue and, as such, ongoing demand for commodities should remain strong. against this backdrop, we believe there is substantial long-term upside potential for steel, metals and mining stocks."

"In their analysis, the analysts determined China's apparent metals consumptions appears "way ahead of real demand growth rates." they believe "China is arbitraging the West on commodity prices. it is acting as an effective ‘vacuum cleaner' for commodity demand in an ex-China recession, which would not have been material ten years ago."

"China appears in effect to be frontloading its own industrial recovery and stimulus by buying commodities as a cheap asset class. This compares with the Western world, which tends to buy most when demand is at its peak and prices are high. This is a well thought-out strategy from China but we should caution that apparent demand growth rates are well above where we see real demand growth right now and, as such, demand from China is unsustainably high in our view."

"Credit Suisse's analysis suggests the country is currently consuming the amount of copper it should be consuming in 2011/2012. "there is a risk of a pull back, especially if prices start to rise, and any rapid pullback is unlikely to be matched by ex [external] China demand growth."

"Meanwhile, the analysts forecast "a substantial tightening in the ex China supply-demand balance for all commodities (although some more than others)."

"We continue to like the long-term story for metal demand," the analysts said. "Like the 1950s and ‘60s post-war restructuring phase (when metal demand grew in the 6-8% range), we are now in what we believe is a long-term industrialization phase. …Therefore, after the cyclical recovery, we forecast, metals demand should structurally remain at relatively strong trend levels in the next 10-15 years."

Credit Suisse advises the strongest commodities for its long-term view of the global metals and mining sector are:

•1)       Copper-potentially 21mt of demand by 2012 will not likely be met by new mine capacity. even under a significant long-term slowdown in China, "we would get to 25mt of copper demand by 2016-which means new mines are necessary. when new mines are necessary the pricing dynamics should move from cost plus pricing to long-term pricing that satisfies the IRR of newbuild."

•2)       Zinc-"although zinc is not favoured by many investors, we believe they often forget how late-cycle this metal is (within the 20-30-year cycle). …mine depletions from 2012E could be significant, although Chinese production capability is potentially large in our view. …We believe China's mined output is in general small scale and ‘inefficient' and hence high cost, which is unlikely to be cost effective in a demand boom. We expect a sharp price increase in zinc in 2011/12, which will be required if CEOs are to be encouraged into building new projects."

 •3)       Iron ore-"we are positive structurally on volume, as low-cost high-quality ore continues to take market share from high-cost production, notably in China and India, as the steel market continues to grow at 4-5% in the long term. nonetheless, given spare capacity (largely higher cost), new volumes from the seaborne majors will, we believe, come at the expense of price in the long term."

 •4)       Coal-thermal coal looks set for the long term. Metallurgical coal is structurally tight in supply, but geared to external Chinese demand; "so it may take time to return to 2008 levels."

 •5)       Platinum-"limited new capacity, ongoing supply problems, and increasing global care and jewellery market, with cleaner cars suggesting a long-term switch to diesel. Fuel cell demand remains a positive long-term possibility."

 "if investors, like us, favour the above commodities, then Rio, Anglo or Xstrata are probably the equities to own," the analysts advised.

‘BHP possibly has the best commodity mix and the strongest growth profile of the stocks in our universe. The problem we have with the stock is that the market appears fully aware of this and the stock therefore appears to have priced this in," they said. "We do think, however, that BHP is a relatively strong defensive play in the cyclical universe for more cautious investors wanting cyclical exposure."

So whether you are an analyst at Credit Suisse or Jim Rogers, the long-term outlook for commodity prices looks very positive. Don't forget the chart above though. This sector is very volatile and investors should expect some gut-wrenching corrections along the way.

These will usually be wonderful buying opportunties and times when we can accumulate or add to our holdings. The same can be said for the precious metals reflected in such ETFs and Closed-End Funds like GLD, SLV,SIVR,IAU,CEF and ASA.

For those who want to be patient, let's remember Jim Rogers' words,"I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up."

Disclosure: I do own some GLD, SLV, and CEF at the current time. On the next correction in silver prices I intend to buy some SIVR and the next meaningful dip in commodities and the metals in general I intend to buy ASA and BHP.

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. please remember investments can fall as well as rise. And they will! – Advanced Investor Technologies LLC accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of this content.

checkthemarkets.com – Jim Rogers and a Swiss View on Commodities

I just register WALL STREET SURVIVOR which is (Stock Trading) for fake money and my question is what kind of stocks would you recommend that will earn me a lot of $$$?

What kind of stocks would you recommend that will earn me a lot of $$$?

May 10, 2010

Posted by Christian @ 3:00 pm

Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, speaks with Bloomberg about Greece, the future of the euro, and his strategy for stocks and commodities.

“In the end, I don’t think the euro will survive,” says Rogers, expecting the currency not to last more than 10-15 years. “At the moment, we’ll probably have a rally.”

Rogers expects the stock market to continue correcting itself for a while. Currently, he’s not selling any commodities nor buying anything. Rogers advises on thinking about investing in silver rather than gold right now.

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Tags: China, Chinese yuan, commodities, euro, gold, Greece, Jim Rogers, precious metals, silver, stock market

Jim Rogers Forecasts End of the Euro