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They always talk about ups and downs. is this really anything significant?

What was this woman upset about?
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Lehman-Bro…
What is a specialist working the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, and what does she do?

it fell like almost 5 percent…which is substantial

How bad did the Stock Market really fall yesterday?

 Look at the 6 month chart below of the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC). it looks like a roller-coaster at six Flags and shows lots of volatility with some pronounced pull-backs. I've included the 100-day moving average

On commodities generally, there was a good interview with Jim Rogers in a July edition of The Globe and Mail  in Canada.Rogers called the great commodity bull market and he is himself a rich man thanks to his investing prowess.As a result, people seek out his opinion on commodities. even though commodities of all kinds have taken a hit in this crisis, the longer-term dynamics still look strong. As Rogers put it: “Did the stock market bull market in end in 1987, when stocks fell around the world fell 40-80%?” No, it didn’t.  The point Rogers makes is that even in the course of longer-term bull markets, there can be stiff corrections. even now, though, the fundamentals for owning commodities — and the stocks that benefit from rising commodity prices — are still intact. As a result, they look very appealing in this uncertain market.  As Rogers says: “I’d rather own commodities than just about anything I can think of… Commodities have a long way to go; the fundamentals have only gotten better in the last year. The best place to have your money is in commodities… most of them are going to make new all-time highs.” I tend to agree. We’re in good position to benefit from the unfolding commodity bull market. Precious metals and energy will lead the way in the next couple of years as well as some of the base metals and perhaps uranium. Jim Rogers, who lives most of the time in Singapore, really knows how to "think outside the box" when it comes to investing. Describing his favorite type of investment,Rogers is renowned for saying in the traders' bible, Market Wizards… "I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up."  his point was clear… if you wait for a low-risk,over-looked lucrative trading opportunity you're more likely to make an exceptional profit and reduce your risk.   "The government is printing lots of money and borrowing even more; that's not the basis for a sound currency," he told Bloomberg in a telephone interview this summer. "The idea that anybody would lend money to the U.S. government for 30 years at three or four or five or six percent interest is mind-boggling to me."Rogers said he's unloading dollars, and he plans to "short U.S. government bonds someday."And it wouldn't surprise me if he starts shorting the U.S. stock market indices when they really get bloated (perhaps after another 10 to 20% rise from here). 

Dorothy Kosich on Monday filed a report through Mineweb.com that reminds us of the Swiiss perspective on commodities, and that seems to be one of their strong suits. she wrote:

"In recently published research, Credit Suisse metals and mining analysts say they are "selectively bullish" on certain commodities-such as copper, zinc, carbon steel, platinum and nickel-and remain "long-term bullish" on commodity demand driven by demographics and global infrastructure spend.

"Credit Suisse's analysis suggests we are currently in a growth period for long-term commodity demand driven by the ongoing industrialization of China and emerging markets; global demographic shifts that will drive commodity-intensive demand for infrastructure; and by a wealth-transfer effect which requires infrastructure that is the "single greatest driver of long-term commodity demand."

"Research analysts Michael Sillaker, Elly Ong, Alessandro Abate, and Hannah Kirby wrote, "We believe global industrialization will continue and, as such, ongoing demand for commodities should remain strong. against this backdrop, we believe there is substantial long-term upside potential for steel, metals and mining stocks."

"In their analysis, the analysts determined China's apparent metals consumptions appears "way ahead of real demand growth rates." they believe "China is arbitraging the West on commodity prices. it is acting as an effective ‘vacuum cleaner' for commodity demand in an ex-China recession, which would not have been material ten years ago."

"China appears in effect to be frontloading its own industrial recovery and stimulus by buying commodities as a cheap asset class. This compares with the Western world, which tends to buy most when demand is at its peak and prices are high. This is a well thought-out strategy from China but we should caution that apparent demand growth rates are well above where we see real demand growth right now and, as such, demand from China is unsustainably high in our view."

"Credit Suisse's analysis suggests the country is currently consuming the amount of copper it should be consuming in 2011/2012. "there is a risk of a pull back, especially if prices start to rise, and any rapid pullback is unlikely to be matched by ex [external] China demand growth."

"Meanwhile, the analysts forecast "a substantial tightening in the ex China supply-demand balance for all commodities (although some more than others)."

"We continue to like the long-term story for metal demand," the analysts said. "Like the 1950s and ‘60s post-war restructuring phase (when metal demand grew in the 6-8% range), we are now in what we believe is a long-term industrialization phase. …Therefore, after the cyclical recovery, we forecast, metals demand should structurally remain at relatively strong trend levels in the next 10-15 years."

Credit Suisse advises the strongest commodities for its long-term view of the global metals and mining sector are:

•1)       Copper-potentially 21mt of demand by 2012 will not likely be met by new mine capacity. even under a significant long-term slowdown in China, "we would get to 25mt of copper demand by 2016-which means new mines are necessary. when new mines are necessary the pricing dynamics should move from cost plus pricing to long-term pricing that satisfies the IRR of newbuild."

•2)       Zinc-"although zinc is not favoured by many investors, we believe they often forget how late-cycle this metal is (within the 20-30-year cycle). …mine depletions from 2012E could be significant, although Chinese production capability is potentially large in our view. …We believe China's mined output is in general small scale and ‘inefficient' and hence high cost, which is unlikely to be cost effective in a demand boom. We expect a sharp price increase in zinc in 2011/12, which will be required if CEOs are to be encouraged into building new projects."

 •3)       Iron ore-"we are positive structurally on volume, as low-cost high-quality ore continues to take market share from high-cost production, notably in China and India, as the steel market continues to grow at 4-5% in the long term. nonetheless, given spare capacity (largely higher cost), new volumes from the seaborne majors will, we believe, come at the expense of price in the long term."

 •4)       Coal-thermal coal looks set for the long term. Metallurgical coal is structurally tight in supply, but geared to external Chinese demand; "so it may take time to return to 2008 levels."

 •5)       Platinum-"limited new capacity, ongoing supply problems, and increasing global care and jewellery market, with cleaner cars suggesting a long-term switch to diesel. Fuel cell demand remains a positive long-term possibility."

 "if investors, like us, favour the above commodities, then Rio, Anglo or Xstrata are probably the equities to own," the analysts advised.

‘BHP possibly has the best commodity mix and the strongest growth profile of the stocks in our universe. The problem we have with the stock is that the market appears fully aware of this and the stock therefore appears to have priced this in," they said. "We do think, however, that BHP is a relatively strong defensive play in the cyclical universe for more cautious investors wanting cyclical exposure."

So whether you are an analyst at Credit Suisse or Jim Rogers, the long-term outlook for commodity prices looks very positive. Don't forget the chart above though. This sector is very volatile and investors should expect some gut-wrenching corrections along the way.

These will usually be wonderful buying opportunties and times when we can accumulate or add to our holdings. The same can be said for the precious metals reflected in such ETFs and Closed-End Funds like GLD, SLV,SIVR,IAU,CEF and ASA.

For those who want to be patient, let's remember Jim Rogers' words,"I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up."

Disclosure: I do own some GLD, SLV, and CEF at the current time. On the next correction in silver prices I intend to buy some SIVR and the next meaningful dip in commodities and the metals in general I intend to buy ASA and BHP.

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. please remember investments can fall as well as rise. And they will! – Advanced Investor Technologies LLC accepts no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of this content.

checkthemarkets.com – Jim Rogers and a Swiss View on Commodities

May 10, 2010

Posted by Christian @ 3:00 pm

Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, speaks with Bloomberg about Greece, the future of the euro, and his strategy for stocks and commodities.

“In the end, I don’t think the euro will survive,” says Rogers, expecting the currency not to last more than 10-15 years. “At the moment, we’ll probably have a rally.”

Rogers expects the stock market to continue correcting itself for a while. Currently, he’s not selling any commodities nor buying anything. Rogers advises on thinking about investing in silver rather than gold right now.

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Tags: China, Chinese yuan, commodities, euro, gold, Greece, Jim Rogers, precious metals, silver, stock market

Jim Rogers Forecasts End of the Euro

please explain why this was in your opiinon

thanks fo ryour answers!
how quickly did this move to other stock markets?

how about the FTSE?

how drastic there?

why so>?

how was the Stock market on Wall street doing the Friday of the 26th of September 2008 before the fall Monday?

I heard that the housing market being low in sales and with the forclousure market crashing, it is affecting investors so much that they are moving money out of equities (stocks) and investing more in safer investments. Thats why the stock market has been down so much in the past week.

How does this happen? I was reading about it, but I didn’t really understand. Are investors pulling out their stocks from big lenders? how exactly does it affect the stock market? I need help understanding it in normal terms that make sense.

Please advise, thank you!!

How does the housing market affect the stock market so much?

As January 20 nears, Barack Obama’s ambitions for spending on the likes of roads, bridges and jobless benefits keep growing. The latest leak puts the “stimulus” at $1 trillion over a couple of years, and the political class is embracing it as a miracle cure.

Not to spoil the party, but this is not a new idea. Keynesian “pump-priming” in a recession has often been tried, and as an economic stimulus it is overrated. The money that the government spends has to come from somewhere, which means from the private economy in higher taxes or borrowing. The public works are usually less productive than the foregone private investment.

In the Age of Obama, we seem fated to re-explain these eternal lessons. So for today we thought we’d recount the history of the last major country that tried to spend its way to “stimulus” — Japan during its “lost decade” of the 1990s. In 1992, Japanese Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa faced falling property prices and a stock market that had sunk 60% in three years. Mr. Miyazawa’s Liberal Democratic Party won re-election promising that Japan would spend its way to becoming a “lifestyle superpower.” The country embarked on a great Keynesian experiment:

August 1992: 10.7 trillion yen ($85 billion). Japan passed its largest-ever stimulus package to that time, with 8.6 trillion yen earmarked for public works, 1.2 trillion to expand loan quotas for small- and medium-sized businesses and 900 billion for the Japan Development Bank. The package passed in December, but investment kept falling and unemployment rose. By the end of the year, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio was 68.6%.

April 1993: 13.2 trillion yen. at exchange rates of the day, this was a whopping $117 billion giveaway, again mostly for public works and small businesses. Tokyo erupted into domestic politicking over election practices, the economy went sideways, and the government fell. New Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa floated tax cuts, deregulation and decentralization to spur growth. but as the economy worsened — inflation-adjusted GNP shrank 0.5% in the April to June quarter — the political drumbeat for handouts increased.

September 1993: 6.2 trillion yen. Mr. Hosokawa announced a compromise “smaller” stimulus of $59 billion, along with minor deregulation. He dropped plans for an income-tax cut. The stimulus included 2.9 trillion yen in low-interest home financing, one trillion yen for “social infrastructure,” and another trillion for business. The economy didn’t respond. By the end of the year, Japan’s debt-to-GDP reached 74.7%.

Is any of this beginning to sound familiar? There’s more.

February 1994: 15.3 trillion yen. this stimulus included 5.8 trillion in income-tax cuts, 7.2 trillion in public investment, 1.5 trillion for small business and employment-support, 500 billion for land purchases and 230 billion for agricultural modernization. The income tax cut was temporary, effective only for 1994. The economy stagnated and Prime Minister Hosokawa resigned amid a corruption scandal. By the end of the year, debt-to-GDP was 80.2%.

September 1995: 14.2 trillion yen. The Socialist government of Tomiichi Murayama, with a wobbly coalition, rolled out a $137 billion whopper, with 4.6 trillion in public works, 3.2 trillion for government land purchases, 1.3 trillion in business loans, and more. Mr. Murayama resigned in early 1996, and in June Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto agreed to raise consumption taxes to 5% from 3%, starting in April 1997, to reduce the fiscal deficit.

In 1994 and 1995, Japan spent 3.1% and 2.9% of its annual GDP, and (helped by central bank easing) the economy did respond with modest growth for about two years. Debt-to-GDP hit 87.6%.

April 1998: 16.7 trillion yen. when growth starting slowing again, the re-elected LDP turned to old medicine: 7.7 trillion yen for public works. The $128 billion grab-bag also included 2.3 trillion for the disposal of bad loans. The government announced four trillion yen in (again) temporary income-tax cuts, spread over two years. Mr. Hashimoto resigned in July after voters registered their discontent at the polls.

November 1998: 23.9 trillion yen. Desperate to get the economy moving, Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi rolled out the country’s largest-ever stimulus, valued at $195 billion. The giveaway included 8.1 trillion yen in social public works, 5.9 trillion for business loans, one trillion for job-creation programs, 700 billion in cash handouts to 35 million households, and more. By the end of the year, debt-to-GDP hit 114.3%.

November 1999: 18 trillion yen. In a “last push,” Mr. Obuchi’s government spent 7.4 trillion yen to prop up businesses, 6.8 trillion yen for social infrastructure projects like telecommunications and environmental projects, and two trillion yen for housing loans, among other things. Debt-to-GDP reached 128.3%.

Japan’s economy grow anemically over that decade, but as the nearby chart shows, its national debt exploded. Only in this decade, with a monetary reflation and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s decision to privatize state assets and force banks to acknowledge their bad debts, did the economy recover. Yet recent governments have rolled back Mr. Koizumi’s reforms and returned to their spending habits. but Japan does have better roads.

Now we’re told that a similar spending program — a new New Deal — will revive the U.S. economy. How do you say “good luck” in Japanese?

Please add your comments to the Opinion Journal forum.

Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A22

WSJ Keynesian Spending Failed in Japan will fail in US

Reading the answers below tells me that everyone who has answered your question so far are either inexperienced, or not very knowledgeable in the stock market. yes it is possible to obtain a 6% return monthly. Current;y I am returning 4% monthly with minimal risk. The trick however is you need to understand more than just stocks but options as well. If you correctly invest in an option you can make 100, 200, 300% and these are not imagined numbers.

Now options are extremely risky, however they need not be! Rather than purchasing options you may sell them, giving you the advantage. You can sell the option, earn the premium and if the option expires without being exercised, then you keep the premium and lose nothing.

Options however are extremely volatile and you must understand htem completely. If you truly wish to earn 6% monthly on your investment then I suggest taking the time to fully understand the stock market and all the investment vehicles available to individual traders.

As for the rest of these wanna be investors, disregard there advice, as I mentioned earlier, I have been making a 4% return on investment monthly with minimal risk so 6% is not impossible.

How to make make 6% a month consistently in the stock market?