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Hello! I’m French and I need some help to correct this translation of an article. I’m looking for somebody who would accept to correct my translations by mail, thanks.

The pound suffers the aftershock of the British financial worsening

A warning notice of storm on the pound was launched by Jim Rogers, former partner of the American financier George Soros, with whom he had fund the famous hedge fund Quantum in the 1970’s. “ I encourage you to sell as fast as possible all the pounds you have. I feel sorry to say that, but I would no longer invest a penny in the United-Kingdom”, declared the businessman at the Bloomberg agency, on Tuesday, January the 20th “I do not think that one healthy British bank left” added Mr Rogers, on Wednesday, the City is over.”
These statements have increased a generalized movement for some weeks. On Wednesday, January the 21st , the pound dropped to $1.3693, its lowest rate since June 2001, to ¥119.42, a historical lower end, and to €1.0601. “A weak currency reflects a weak economy which reflects a weak government.”, had asserted Gordon Brown in 1992, today British Prime Minister. That year, the currency suffers the aftershock of the crisis and George Soros himself came along its exit from the European Monetary system, snapping up in passing $2 billion.

Could you help me and correct this English text?

May 10, 2010

Posted by Christian @ 3:00 pm

Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, speaks with Bloomberg about Greece, the future of the euro, and his strategy for stocks and commodities.

“In the end, I don’t think the euro will survive,” says Rogers, expecting the currency not to last more than 10-15 years. “At the moment, we’ll probably have a rally.”

Rogers expects the stock market to continue correcting itself for a while. Currently, he’s not selling any commodities nor buying anything. Rogers advises on thinking about investing in silver rather than gold right now.

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Tags: China, Chinese yuan, commodities, euro, gold, Greece, Jim Rogers, precious metals, silver, stock market

Jim Rogers Forecasts End of the Euro

What do people in Singapore think about Jim Rogers and his commodities index?

All intelligent investors take note: we are currently in the midst of a long-term secular bear market in equities that will most likely last until sometime between 2010 and 2020. How do I know this for a fact? I don’t. however, in the past few weeks, I’ve come across three separate analyses that would lead one to this conclusion. They are as follows:

The Bannister Study

The first source was found via Jim Rogers Hot Commodities. In Rogers’ book, he cites a study completed by Barry Bannister, an analyst for Legg Mason Wood Walker, inc., that showed a negative correlation between equities and commodities. Secular equity bull markets were found to be followed by secular equity bear markets and commodity bull markets. Bannister’s findings can be most readily understood by examining the graph below from Rogers’ book (Click the image to enlarge):

Bannister’s study showed that these alternating bull/bear cycles lasted 17 to 18 years. Note that the equity bull market peaked around 2000, which means that we are in a long-term equity bear market (And a long-term commodity bull market).

The Real Dow

The second confirmatory source was found over on iTulip.com. It’s a graph of the DJIA divided by the CPI-U, which is the broadest measure of consumer prices that the government provides. Again, a picture is worth a thousand words:

Looking at the Real Dow graph, take note that there are only two ways for the DJIA to revert to the mean: either decrease the numerator via deflation of the DJIA or increase the denominator via inflation of the CPI-U. either way, if history is any guide, we’re in for a hell of a ride because one of the two alternatives must occur.

The Siegel Study

Found via an article titled, No room to zoom? Commentary: Stocks may face a dreary decade ahead, on MarketWatch (Hat tip to Aaron Krowne’s FURL), Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School found that the real rate of return on the stock market for the past 200 years was a mere 7%. once again, here is a graph from the article (No need to enlarge):

In the MarketWatch article, Peter Brimelow and Edwin S. Rubenstein note the following (emphasis mine):

When we first looked at Siegel’s numbers in the late 1990s, stocks were over 80% above the long-run total return trendline, about as high as they ever get. Stocks reached similar levels in 1928 and 1968 — both years when the stock market was notoriously topping out.

Stocks did fall after 2000 (remember?) but they never got lower than a few points below trend. then the post-election Bush bounce in 2004-2005 took stocks to some 7% above trend. After that, stocks stalled. That means that this time last year, because of that relentlessly cumulating trendline, stocks were down to less than 1% above it. see Aug. 26, 2005 column.

Now it’s even tighter: Stocks are just 0.1% below trend, to be exact. And even that’s still well above the levels usually seen at major bear market lows. In both 1931 and 1973, stocks got some 40% below trend. In other words, an epochal but not unprecedented bull market high has not yet, unlike in every other case on record, been succeeded by a corresponding bear market low.

This may sound worrying. but of course the major market indexes we’re used to watching don’t literally have to fall 40%. Because the underlying total return trend rises at some 7% a year, the indexes can just move sideways. How long? well, adjusting just for dividends, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved sideways until 2019, that would be the equivalent of Siegel’s broad, total-return measure of stocks getting 40% below trend.

That’s a 19-year stagnation in total, quite comparable to the Dow 16-year stagnation after 1966.

I don’t think any further comments on this article are necessary as by now, I’m pretty sure you’re seeing the big picture.

Conclusion?

What does all of this mean? well, it could mean nothing. Simply because three different analyses happen to arrive at the same conclusion could merely be coincidence. It’s also possible that the analyses are simply incorrect. That said, for my purposes, it’s enough to make me think thrice before pumping my savings into equities.

Beware! The bear is at large.

If you liked this, Digg it!

Bad News For Equity Bulls

There are very few names in the world of finance and investing that evoke more respect that Jim Rogers, who told Britain’s Daily Telegraph newspaper on Wednesday he was switching out of the dollar and into yen, the yuan and the Swiss franc. the veteran investor, who predicted the 1999 commodities rally, also said…

he was still bullish about surging Chinese stock markets despite worries over a bubble.

Fears are growing over the health of the U.S. economy after the fallout from the subprime mortgage market crisis and the global credit crunch it triggered.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has already slashed borrowing costs by 50 basis points to 4.75 percent to try and shore up the world’s biggest economy and is widely expected to lower interest rates again next week.

“The US economy is undoubtedly in recession,” Rogers told the Telegraph in Hong Kong in an article published on its Website.

“Many parts of industry are actually in a state worse than recession. If it were not for (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke putting huge amounts of money into the market, the stock market would probably be down much more than it is.”

Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with billionaire investor George Soros in the 1970s, said it made sense to desert the dollar.

“All other things being equal during the next six months, that’s the way I will go,” he said. “But if the Swiss franc goes through the roof, I probably won’t put money into the Swiss franc.”

And he dismissed worries for now that surging Chinese equities had formed a bubble, according to a report posted on Reuters (www.reuters.com). the Shanghai Composite Index settled 1.2 percent higher on Wednesday at 5,843 points. this time last year the index was trading around 1,800 points. “It’s not a bubble yet — if it goes past 9,000 in January I’ll have to sell. Bubbles always end badly,” he said. “I do not want to sell Chinese stocks. I want to own them forever and I want my (four year-old:daughter to own them.”

The latest Chinese IPO, Longtop Financial Technologies Ltd. (NYSE:LFT) had a monster-good first day of trading. In fact in the last two hours of trading yesterday it was up 27%. So far on Thursday LFT has backed down around 4% on heavy volume.

If mr. Rogers likes Swiss Francs, I would think he would love gold and especially silver. as a commodities expert, he must know how under-valued gold and silver are on an inflation-adjusted basis, and that gold is renowned as the “safe haven” during tumultuous times like these. did you happen to notice how a stock like Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) is doing right now? we own this stock and only wish we owned more, which is exactly what we will do if the shares happen to correct below $14.

US in Recession, China no Bubble, says Rogers

The commodities markets and exchange traded funds (ETFs) have rallied hard in the past year, but now Jim Rogers, natural-resource investment guru, is even more bullish on raw materials as supply slowly lags behind growing demand.

Speaking with Olivier Ludwig for IndexUniverse, Rogers stated that the supply situation of all commodities is deteriorating. For instance, oil reserves continue to decline at a steady rate and no new reserves are being discovered to replace the dwindling supply. Using simple arithmetic, says Rogers, there won’t be any oil left at any price in about 20 years. [ETF Alternatives to Getting Oil Exposure.]

• United States Oil (NYSEArca: USO)
• PowerShares DB Oil (NYSEArca: DBO)
• SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (NYSEArca: XOP)
• iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil and Gas Exploration (NYSEArca: IEO)

In looking at cheap commodities right now, silver is 75% below its all-time high and palladium is trading below its historic basis. With energy, natural gas is 70% or 80% below its all-time high. In agriculture, sugar is still 75% or so below its all-time high, coffee and orange juice are also below their highs. These are places Rogers suggests an investor to start looking; however, Rogers only buys futures-based indexes now, which he says outperform active management 75% to 80% of the time year after year. However you get exposure to commodities, via futures or equities, be sure to use a strategy. [Our Guide to Metals ETFs.]

• iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV)
• ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (NYSEArca: PALL)
• Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLE)
• United States Natural Gas (NYSEArca: UNG)
• United States 12-Month Natural Gas (NYSEArca: UNL)
• First Trust Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca: FCG)
• iPath Dow Jones AIG Sugar TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSEArca: SGG)

Further contributing to the higher prices of commodities, a shortage of farmers is developing and fewer new college graduates are going into the farming business. More people will go into farming once commodities prices skyrocket, but that could take awhile. [ETFs for the Agricultural Sector.]

• PowerShares DB Agriculture (NYSEArca: DBA)
• UBS E-TRACS CMCI Food TR ETN (NYSEArca: FUD)
• UBS E-TRACS CMCI Agriculture TR ETN (NYSEArca: UAG)
• UBS E-TRACS CMCI Livestock TR ETN (NYSEArca: UBC)
• ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Agri ETN (NYSEArca: RJA)
• iPath DJ-UBS Agriculture TR Sub-Idx ETN (NYSEArca: JJA)
• iPath DJ-UBS Cotton (NYSEArca: BAL)
• iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSEArca: GSG)

Rogers adamantly believes that one may make more money investing in commodities themselves than in commodity-related stocks, but there are also commodity investment opportunities that only stocks or the currencies of natural-resource heavy economies may provide. For instance, the Canadian stock market is doing well because it is a natural-resource-based economy. [Why Canadian Dollar ETF is Strong.]

• iShares MSCI Canada Index (NYSEArca: EWC)
• CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (NYSEArca: FXC)

The fundamentals in commodities are good. Speculators and investors are diving into the commodities market as a result. It’s simple capitalism, remarks Rogers. if the United States regulates the commodities market to deter speculation, other foreign markets will just pick up the commodities trading to the detriment of the U.S. economy, Rogers opines.

For more information on commodities, visit our commodity category.

Read the disclaimer; Tom Lydon is a board member of Rydex|SGI.

Max Chen contributed to this article.

Tags: Agriculture, BAL, Canada, Canadian Dollar, Commodity ETFs, Cotton, Currency ETFs, DBA, DBO, Emerging Markets, Energy, ETNs, EWC, FCG, FUD, FXC, Global ETFs, IEO, JJA, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil & Gas Exploration, PALL, Palladium, Precious Metals, RJA, Sector ETFs, SGG, Silver, SLV, Sugar, UAG, UBC, UNG, UNL, USO, XLE, XOP

Commodity ETFs: Strategies to Play the Jim Rogers Bull | ETF Trends

Am I the only one following Jim Rogers?
All friends and family who I mention this to think I’m nuts. but then again they also thought I was nuts when I changed my 401k allocation to a cash fund paying a measly 3.5% back in January.
Anybody with me on the Swiss Francs?

Thoughts on converting U.S. Dollars to Swiss Francs?

Jim Rogers :”I expect the Yen to go higher I am not selling Yen” both US Dollar and Yen are both involved in the carry trade and so I am holding my yen explains Jim Rogers , I have not bought any yen recently but I have been buying dollars and Euros ..amongst the commodities Jim Rogers recommends silver Natural gas agricultural commodities may be there are opportunities amongst the things (commodities ) that are cheap Jim Rogers explains good places to look for opportunities are cotton and sugar …amongst the Chinese stocks Jim Rogers recommends the airlines companies from which he expect to make a lot of money …Jim Rogers explains that there is a real estate bubble in the big Chinese cities but that the government is trying to cool things down…

Jim Rogers is buying Dollars and Euros and expects the Yen to go …

Forbes India : “Some specific global lessons or examples that India can adopt from other countries such as China?”
Jim Rogers :”Open your borders to foreign capital and brains. for example, foreigners cannot enter retailing in India, but Wal-Mart etc. are all over China. Your politicians close down free commodity markets every time prices rise as if the markets were making the prices rise!

Farmers can own only very, very small farms so India cannot compete on the world stage, yet India should be one of the great agriculture nations of the world. “

Forbes India : “What will it take to get you to invest in India? “
Jim Rogers : “Some sense of 21st Century reality. Open the economy such as retailing, energy, agriculture, etc. Make the currency fully convertible. “

Read full Interview

Jim Rogers on India vs China | Jim Rogers Blog