Super Stock Blog

In a world weighed down by debt and low nominal GDP growth, with deflationary pressures mounting, it’s a no-brainer that risk assets aren’t likely to fare well. Dee points out that “we are sailing into these choppy waters without a life preserver; fiscal and monetary levers have already been pulled.” That means that come another financial crisis, “the only policy response left will be to print money.” Which, of course, is what the gold bugs are counting on and why bullion has glistened so brightly. He sums it all up this way: what we’ve had since May is a nice bounce by an oversold market. “The rally, however,” he cautions, “has been ragged. I think it’s very timely to sell those tired longs and short anything in the way of the coming storm.”

I happen to share those beliefs, but my current bets are not fundamentally driven. who knows when markets will trend (and in what direction exactly). We can just be ready.

Predictions Are Tough « Michael Covel: Trend Following Manifesto