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Activision to Make New Highs

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On November 14, 2009

In Stock

Yup, I’m calling it.  They broke the record for most pre-orders of any video game with Modern Warfare 2.  The first day they make over $310 million dollars.  If you think that’s good, try calling any Best Buy (BBY) or Game Stop (GME) and you will surely get a ‘inventory is sold out’ or you will need to order it and pick it up later on.  Activision is putting a huge advertising campaign to promote the game.  You might have seen the spectacular trailers, game footage, and/or reviews.  This is definitely the block-buster game of 2009.  They put it out just in time for the holidays also.

I’m expecting this baby to hit $18.  However, I don’t think it stops there either.  Their lineup for 2010 includes Starcraft 2 which is the top-selling game in Korea for over 10 years.  It’s played like an olympic sport with sold-out crowds of people watching Starcraft gamers play head-to-head.  Don’t forget Activision also holds the largest MMORPG with World of Warcraft.  They also have expansions of WOW which bring in additional revenue.

I like getting Activision right now.  It’s at really low prices and anything can make this thing boom up.  You still have Diablo 3 online for 2011.  Long-term or Short-term, this is a great trade!

Waiting for the right time to Short Treasuries

By

On June 7, 2009

In Stock

We are looking at a unsustainable rally.  The government has put a lot of programs in place that are propping up the stock market.  Look at all those TARP payments.  They’re all in the billions and they have kept the bank stocks up in the market. Some banks have more than doubled from their March lows.  Bank of America, BAC, has increased 300% from its bottom.  That’s insane!

China has a problem with these TARP payments.  They have been continously funding our economy by buying our debt.  However, their funding has been decreasing as they see us printing billions of dollars to pull ourselves away from this recession.  Tim Geithner recently made a visit to China to persuade them to continue to buy the US Dollar.  He went to a university and all the chinese students got a good laugh when he stated the economy was in great shape and the United States will continue to have a strong dollar.

The chinese need some convincing to continue to help us out.  They don’t want to fund us if our US Dollar is going to get weaker.  They can start buying other currencies that still keep their strength.  Hence, the government needs to give them ‘more for their money’.  They start raising the yield on the treasuries.  To do this, the government starts buying the treasuries.  Countries like China will get a fat yield for holding the US Dollar.  However, this artificial buying to keep the yield up cannot last forever.  Our treasury yields are reaching historic lows, and when these prices finally drop, we need to plan to take advantage of the situation.

This is where our two short ETFs come in, ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) and Direxion Daily 30 Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares (TMV).  When the government keeps lowering the price, we make money.  People will not buy treasuries unless they can get a nice yield for their money.  The government will have to raise interest rates, lower the price of the treasuries, or continually buy them up to continue this trend.  Whatever way they do it, shorting will be the way to go.  It’s just a matter of time to do it.  Currently, treasury prices are kind of high but in the next few months I expect there will be a good time to get in.  Just monitor those prices and yields and wait for the right time to bite!

Natural Gas is Bottoming Out

By

On June 6, 2009

In Stock

Yup, it’s time to start loading up on UNG, the natural gas ETF.  The summer has hit so it would seem like the worse time to buy this commodity, but market conditions and technical analysis give us a good reason to start getting into this stock.  It’s showing high volume, a flat-lining curve, and it appears to have start it entry back up.  This stock was at a high of over $40 just one year ago.  It has reached a very low price of $14 within the last month, and currently goes for $14.56.  As we get furthur into the weeks ahead, I see a increase in the price as demand starts increasing with futures trading.  Look as oil, it has irrationally moved back over $70 not because of demand but people are trading it and bumping that thing back up to levels from last year.

The normal ratio of oil to gas has averaged 6:1, we’re looking at over 14:1 currently.  It’s time for natural gas to move.

Activision/Blizzard Looking Good for the Future

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On April 12, 2009

In Stock

This must be the investors’ ultimate game stock.  There is no other company that encompasses so many great games: Guitar Hero, Starcraft, Diablo, World of Warcraft.  They have a line of games that will bring in recurring income for a long time.  Starcraft is a very old game, but it still gets lots of press coverage.  In Korea, there is even a channel specifically for Starcraft.  They have game shows and prizes with audiences passing over 10,000 people just to show the video game on projectors and have the best players come out.

Starcraft II will be coming out sometime this year.  It has been said to be released sometime in the first half.  If you visit Gamestop, you will notice a link for the pre-order of the game.  You can bet this game will break major records in sales.  Also, if you look at the stock chart, you will notice this company has a very strong uptrend since January.  The big dips and drops of the stock market has not affected this company at all!

I’ve also recently got access to MarketClub.  They have a feature for their members that gives a trending system.  0 being negative and +100 being very positive for the future.  Activision/Blizzard is ranked to be +75.  This means it is showing some near term weakness. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer term uptrend Uptrend with tight money management stops.  This is very good looking for the future.  If the market looks right tomorrow, maybe I will pick up some shares.

One More Big Drop Before We Have Clear Skies

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On March 28, 2009

In Stock

That’s correct, I’m calling it.  Back in 2001-2002, we had over a 25% drop, then it went up, but it followed another huge 20% drop in the DOW market.  These two drops happened in a span of one year.  We’re facing a loan crisis that we should seriously not be able to come back from.  Japan attempted to bailout their country in the 1990s and still continue to face a stagnant economy that never fully recovered.  We just made a $1 trillion bailout plan to help fix the mortgage security problem.  The money does not exist, but the government is asking international parties, international banks, private investors and forcing tax payers to front some of the amount.  Suffice to say, we are the heart of the economy to the world.   We will survive and will come out stronger.  However, this might be the last time we get to push around other countries to help us.  China will continually try to move their economy from a US export economy to a domestic and international power house.

Back to the DOW, many analysts say we are bottoming out.  However, look at the 1980s oil crisis, you will also notice a 10% drop, a rise, and then another 10% drop.  We will face not only another drop, but possibly more than one.  Obama has been doing a great public campaign to persuade the people that there are better days.  We will survive this problem, but it’s not over yet.  I suggest investors continue to hold their cash in the bank or put it in CDs.  Wait some time to see where things go.  You’ll have a nice nest egg eventually to put in the stock market, but now is not the time.

RSO, Resource Capital Corp, Making it Happen

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On March 26, 2009

In Stock

Resource Capital Corp, RSO, has reached highs going over 100% of its value in just one week.  The company runs a steady and conservative portfolio of commercial real estate loans that were most likely made during the late 1990s and early 2000s.  Only one single condo loan deal has been a default.  The others have been doing quite well.  It was at an all-time low on March 3, 2008 at $1.43.  Right now, it is at $3.87.  The company has a well established management team including  Jonathan Cohen and Leon Cooperman who have many years of real estate experience.

The recent $1 trillion dollar bailout was a huge stimulus to their stock price this week.  It started on monday moving from less than $2 to almost doubling which I would like to see by the end of this week.  President Obama’s $1 trillion bailout will secure all the mortgage securities making sure that these loans are paid off and the money keeps rolling in.  The dividend yield was set to be $0.30 per share for the upcoming quarter.  If you multiply that by 4, you get a yearly dividend of $1.20 almost 1/3 of the share value.  As a long-term stock, this will reap you many years of rewards.  Put it in your Roth IRA and just collect easy money.

You are Siriously Rich Now

By

On March 17, 2009

In Stock

If you followed my post from February 18, 2009, you are sitting on an almost 50% gain on Sirius.  This is an great gain vs what we are seeing in the market.  You can only get this type of gain from small companies and distressed companies.  Sirius hits both of these marks.  It has a great chance of going bankrupt, but when Liberty Media comes in and funds them millions to pay off their loans, they have a good chance of weathering this storm.  There must be something up their sleeves and it shows it with the closing price today at $0.235.  I, myself, am looking for the long-term gains and I will wait this one out.  It’s so cheap that the up-side is definitely much bigger than the downside.

Dollar Cost Averaging Down

By

On February 22, 2009

In Stock

We know the economy will eventually get better.  We are seeing things at the worse: the interest rates have hit bottoms never seen before, job rates are at all time lows, the stimulus package will take at least 6 months to start getting into effect, the stock market is hitting lows seen from year 2000.  The DOW has continued its drop, now hitting below 7400.  Many advisors assume that the market will drop below 6500 before things get better.   One of the reasons is in April, many of the ARM loans will get reset.  We will see another huge round of foreclosures, and the result is more lows for the DOW.

I suggest right now is a great time to just hold your money or buy some commodities such as gold.  If you have a 401k, it’s a good time just to continue your dollar cost averaging down.  You might as well just stay on the sidelines and let the things unravel while building your nest or paying off your debt.

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