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By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) — the stock market’s extraordinary volatility of late brings to mind Warren Buffett’s classic line that one of the primary purposes of stock market forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good.

/quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed DJIA 10,137, -122.36, -1.19%

Take Tuesday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 10,137, -122.36, -1.19%) at one point early in the session was down nearly 300 points, raising fears of a waterfall decline similar to that seen in the Fall of 2008, following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

But then Dow the rallied, finishing the day down just 23 points. the S&P 500 index /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:inx (SPX 1,089, -13.65, -1.24%) actually eked out a small gain.

Does that mean the short-term direction of the market has now turned up? Or does it mean that the bear is just taking a break, and will shortly return in full force?

Of course, no one knows for sure.

Given how difficult it is to forecast the stock market’s short-term direction at any time, much less now, you might imagine that it is even more difficult to forecast the market’s direction over longer periods of time.

Ironically, however, that may not be the case. Statisticians tell us that it is less hard (note I didn’t say easy) to predict the market’s return over the next six to 12 months than it is to forecast its return over the next day. and it’s even less difficult still when the forecast horizon extends to longer periods of time.

Consider an econometric model maintained by Sam Eisenstadt, the former research chairman at value Line, inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!valu/quotes/nls/valu (VALU 19.80, 0.00, 0.00%) , the author of the famed value Line stock-ranking system, and a rigorous statistical student of the stock market for over 60 years. he reports that his model sports an impressive track record back to 1952 in forecasting six-month returns. (Its r-squared, for the statisticians among you, is 0.3).

Or consider another econometric model with similar statistical success devised by Norman Fosback, editor of Fosback’s Fund Forecaster and formerly head of the Institute for Econometric Research. His primary trend model focuses on the market’s returns one to five years into the future, but makes no predictions about the market’s shorter-term movements.

What are these two models saying right now?

Interestingly, both are quite bullish. Eisenstadt tells me that his model is currently forecasting a 20% return for the S&P 500 index /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:inx (SPX 1,089, -13.65, -1.24%) over the next six months. Fosback reports in the latest issue of his newsletter that his model is forecasting a 26% total return for the stock market over the next year and a 75% five-year return (equivalent to around 12% annualized).

Note carefully that, just because these models have good track records, there is no guarantee that they will be right. An r-squared of 0.3, for example, even though statistically quite impressive, still means that the bulk of the stock market’s returns over any given six-month period cannot be explained or predicted by the model.

Nevertheless, we should remember their past success when we are tempted to throw up our hands in despair at predicting the stock market’s daily ups and downs. We don’t have to be good at forecasting those gyrations in order to do very well, thank you, in predicting the market’s longer-term trend.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. he has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

Longer term in focus

By GREG IP

He has cried wolf many times, but this time George Soros says the beast is really upon us.

Mr. Soros, the chairman of Soros Fund Management, is best-known as a speculator, philanthropist and political activist. he made a fortune by doing things such as betting against Britain’s currency in 1992 and Thailand’s in 1997.

Lou Beach; Getty Images

George Soros admits his warnings haven’t always panned out.

A Hungarian refugee, he has spent millions to promote democracy and learning in post-Soviet nations. he also has spent heavily to promote liberal causes and has been an ardent critic of President Bush.

But mr. Soros, 77 years old, wants to be remembered most as a philosopher. since he was a student in 1952, he has been promoting his economic theory, which he calls “reflexivity.”

In essence, he argues that markets don’t simply reflect fundamental determinants but can change those determinants in a way that causes asset prices to go to extremes. In his latest book, “The new Paradigm for Financial Markets,” he argues a “superbubble” has developed in the past 25 years and it is now collapsing.

Mr. Soros’s predictions in his books have fallen far short of his track record as a hedge-fund operator. In 1987 he wrote that the world had to ditch the dollar in favor of a new international currency system or risk “financial turmoil, beggar-thy-neighbor policies leading to world-wide depression and perhaps even war.” his 1998 book said, “The global capitalist system … is coming apart at the seams.”

In recent interviews in Washington and new York, the Wall Street Journal asked him about his forecast, why he succeeds financially when his world view has been wrong, and his aspirations to be a philosopher. Excerpts:

WSJ: You’ve said this is the worst financial crisis since the great Depression. Yet at its worst, the stock market was only down 18%. That doesn’t seem Depression-like. is this as bad as it gets?

Mr. Soros: I think that the decline in housing prices is going to be more precipitous and go further than people currently expect. to expect [to come] out of the recession by the end of the year, I find that inconceivable.

But I can envisage a very broad range of scenarios. One would be a very prolonged world-wide recession. I cannot imagine a replay of the ’30s. but you can have a muddle-through replay of the Japanese scenario, 10 years of stagnation.

The employment figures are still very, very satisfactory. Part of this is due to the impact of the lower dollar in stimulating exports and partly to the very strong position of the corporate sector. the economy turned out to be structurally in very good shape.

WSJ: You argue that the crises we’ve experienced in the past 25 years have been, in retrospect, “testing events” that convince us the system is stable, encourage us to take even bigger risks, leading to one, cataclysmic collapse. Could this be just another testing event?

Mr. Soros: Each time the authorities saved us, that reinforced the belief that markets are self-correcting. Each time when you bail out the economy, you need to find a new motor, a new source of credit and a new instrument that allows for the credit expansion. [It's] difficult to imagine what you can do when you are already lending effectively 100% on inflated house prices.

I have a record of crying wolf at these times. I did it first in “The Alchemy of Finance” [in 1987], then in “The Crisis of Global Capitalism” [in 1998] and now in this book. So it’s three books predicting disaster. [After] the boy cried wolf three times … the wolf really came. If we can sail through this without a recession, then the superbubble story is seriously impacted … I [will] have cried wolf again. Unfortunately, if you go into a recession, [it is not] proof of reflexivity, or vice versa.

WSJ: How is that you are rich despite your world view having been wrong so far?

Mr. Soros: I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong.

WSJ: How do you stay levelheaded in the middle of a bubble?

Mr. Soros: I don’t. I panic. the same thing applies to me as to everybody else, so I’m given to euphoria and despair. And I would say that I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes. I very often used to get backaches due to the fact that I was wrong. Whenever you are wrong you have to fight or [take] flight. when [I] make the decision, the backache goes away. I don’t always make the right decision. I sometimes cut my losses when I shouldn’t.

WSJ: Is reflexivity really behind your success, or are you just a good trader?

Mr. Soros: My performance currently is not that good, but taking the longer [view] it is kind of outstanding. There are two possible explanations. One is the theory [of reflexivity] and the other is the backache. And I think it’s really the combination of both because recognizing reflexivity drives you to this constant re-examination.

WSJ: Would you prefer to be remembered as a philosopher than as a successful speculator or philanthropist?

Mr. Soros: Much more. you know, people have hang-ups and that’s my hang-up. the most popular reaction to my philosophy is … success has gone to his head and he wants to be more than what he is. That’s obviously a very plausible theory. certainly being a successful fund manager gave me a platform. but I would like the ideas to be judged on their own merit.

I think I’m on the verge. for the first time, this book [his 10th] is a best seller. I was asked to testify [before the Senate Commerce Committee] because a staff member read the book.

WSJ: Are you getting recognition from heavyweights in academia or policy making?

Mr. Soros: it has certainly not penetrated academia, and not policy makers either. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal about people doing research on bubbles at Princeton, so I’m going to meet with one of them. I wish I could engage in a discussion with [the Federal Reserve]. I’m waiting for a phone call. I’m [meeting with] Alan Greenspan.

WSJ: But you are quite critical of Greenspan.

Mr. Soros: Greenspan is one of the great manipulators of financial markets. I mean it in a good way. he managed [in 2001] to forestall a more serious recession. he kept interest rates [low] too long. And he did not heed the warnings that lending standards were being lowered, that deceptive practices were being used. he was too much of a market fundamentalist. he believed that if you leave it to markets, everything will be all right. That’s initially self-reinforcing, but eventually self-defeating.

WSJ: Greenspan argues that the benefits of innovation are worth the occasional bubble.

Mr. Soros: This is, of course, [Joseph] Schumpeter’s creative destruction idea. However … going overboard in generating change is not necessarily a good thing. Financial innovation may not be an unmixed blessing because it really prevents proper regulation.

If you look at the 19th century, you had creative destruction going on, one financial crisis after another. but each time you had a crisis, you had an examination of what went wrong, and you put in some instrument or some institution to prevent it from happening.

I’m not advocating … central planning because that’s worse than markets. but the regulators need to learn from the mistakes that they have made. I think it’s pretty clear that you’ve got to accept responsibility for moderating asset bubbles. … That involves regulating credit as well as [interest rates].

Write to Greg Ip at greg.ip@wsj.com

Printed in the Wall Street Journal, page B1

Soros, the Man Who Cries Wolf, Now Is Warning of Superbubble

ETF Securities has filed papers with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a series of commodity ETFs that may give investors long-term tax treatment that’s superior to competing funds.

The filing, dated May 27, covers 18 new ETFs, and would mark a significant expansion of ETF Securities’ U.S. lineup. the company currently has just four funds on the market in the U.S., with about $1.5 billion in assets under management. London-based ETF Securities is a dominant player in the commodities ETF space in Europe, and has gathered more than $18 billion in assets.

The new U.S. filing covers eight traditional long commodity funds, five short commodity funds and five leveraged funds. each fund will track an index that aims to capture the performance of a fully collateralized rolling position in front-month commodity contracts. the leveraged funds aim to capture twice the daily performance of each index, while the short funds aim to capture the inverse of the index’s daily performance.

The funds are:

The Potential Tax Advantage

The potential tax advantage is that these funds won’t invest in actual futures contracts, the way ETFs like the United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO) or the iShares GSCI ETF (NYSEArca: GSG) do. instead, they will enter into a special kind of swap agreement, which may boost the long-term tax efficiency of the funds.

ETFs are a pass-through mechanism: Investors holding ETFs are taxed as if they held the securities owned by the ETF itself. Futures contracts are treated differently from equities from a tax perspective, and those differences pass straight through to the ETF investor. As a result, no matter how long you hold a fund like USO, any gains will be taxed as 60 percent long-term and 40 percent short-term gains, just as a futures contract would be. that creates a maximum capital gains tax rate of 23 percent. also, futures (and futures-holding ETFs) are “marked-to-market” at the end of each year, meaning you can’t defer gains, and will likely owe taxes on the fund each and every year. this has made owning futures-based commodity ETFs in a taxable account somewhat challenging.

The new funds will own swap contracts linked to futures rather than purchasing the futures themselves. the advantage is that the swaps in this case will be structured as “prepaid forward contracts.” That’s a magic word in commodities, as it’s the same word used to describe commodity exchange-traded notes.

ETF Securities Files For Tax-Efficient Commodity ETFs

In Peter Lynch’s book “learn to earn” he talks about a bond paying 8% interest on 10K investment. (8K Intrest). then he says inflation is 4%. He calculates that you lose almost 1,300 of the interest (I think) to inflation. therefore he says that your orginal 10K investment is worth 6,648 after 10 yrs of 4% inflation. How is it that the investment ends up at 6,648 after 10 yrs of inflation?

Need explination of this thing..?

Lucas Remmerswaal is a man on a mission – a mission to change the way a whole generation approaches its finances.

But how does a Whangarei investment adviser and father-of-six plan on doing that? By writing children’s books inspired by the ideas and principles of American billionaire investor and philanthropist Warren Buffett – the world’s third wealthiest man.

Remmerswaal is in the process of producing an illustrated book for five-year-olds, another for 12 year-olds and a teaching aid for parents and teachers.

The books, both titled The 13 habits that made me $48 billion, inspired by Warren Buffett, have been illustrated by Australian artist Annette Lodge, who has published a number of her own children’s books.

Remmerswaal says he has invested $64,000 in the project so far.

“All our money outside the family home is invested in this project.”

But before approaching publishers, he wants to get Buffett involved, as he says that will be the key to his plan of launching the books on the Oprah Winfrey Show.

It’s a big dream – Buffett is bombarded by hundreds of unsolicited emails and calls every day, and has a loyal personal assistant whose job mostly involves fending off unwanted inquiries. But Remmerswaal hopes the books will help avoid another global financial crisis.

“Everyone did it wrong,” he says, referring to the greedy business practices that led to the recession. “Two billion dollars worth of retirees’ savings wiped off the face of the earth, just in new Zealand.

“I’m just a poor house husband that’s put his life savings on the line because I want to create a change from that Petricevic and Bryers thinking to Buffett thinking.”

He says financial gain is only a small part of his reason for starting the project, and if it is successful, he plans on donating much of the money to the Success for Students charitable trust that he set up with his neighbour.

The Buffett project has received high praise from education royalty – national standards specialist Professor John Hattie from the University of Auckland, who met Remmerswaal last week, and viewed the drafts of the books.

“I think he’s onto a winner and I think it’s a stunning project,” says Hattie. “The artwork alone is incredibly impressive, and that alone will engage young kids.”

Remmerswaal could be described as a Buffett obsessive. He has researched the Omaha, Nebraska-based businessman intensely since the late 1990s. He recently spent a week in Omaha trying to get a meeting with Buffett, to introduce him to the project, but to no avail.

Apparently, Buffett doesn’t answer his door to strangers.

There’s nothing particularly strange about Buffett fanaticism. There are thousands of “disciples” of the so-called “Oracle of Omaha” around the world. The annual shareholder’s meeting for his company, Berkshire Hathaway, fills an arena.

Despite being one of the richest companies on earth, the offices of Berkshire Hathaway occupy just a single floor of a modest office block in Omaha. Buffett, renowned for his frugality, employs only a handful of staff.

He reportedly gives 85 per cent of his net wealth to the bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and family charities, and lives in a humble home – not even the biggest in the street – in a suburb of Omaha.

Remmerswaal says he has read every chairman’s letter Buffett has released since 1977, as well as countless biographies on the billionaire.

There is much to be gained from the information contained in those letters and books, he says, but people are put off reading them because they think they are complicated. “All I’ve done is translated [the letters and books] for 5-year-olds, for 12-year-olds and for parents and teachers,” he says. “I’m just a foreign language translator, that’s what I’m doing here.”

Next month Remmerswaal heads back to Nebraska to join the hordes at the Berkshire-Hathaway annual shareholders meeting. He will again attempt to make contact with Buffett.

The clock ticks mercilessly for Remmerswaal – he wants the book to be launched on August 30 to coincide with Buffett’s 80th birthday. He has four-and-a-half months to get Buffett, and then Oprah, on board.

Hattie says there is much Kiwi kids can learn from the ideas in the Buffett books. “The message isn’t so much about Warren Buffett, it’s about key behaviours and key attitudes and Lucas is using [the books] as a medium,” he says.

By Christopher Adams

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Warren Jobs | Week Ahead: Jobs, Cars and Warren Buffett – FOXBusiness

please explain why this was in your opiinon

thanks fo ryour answers!
how quickly did this move to other stock markets?

how about the FTSE?

how drastic there?

why so>?

how was the Stock market on Wall street doing the Friday of the 26th of September 2008 before the fall Monday?

AvStar Aviation Group (Pinksheets:AAVG) is a full service aircraft maintenance- repair- overhaul (MRO) company focused on small, second-tier airports; and committed to developing their brand with future acquisitions of charter operations, MROs and fixed base operations (FBOs) nationwide. There are over 3,100 FBOs operating in the U.S (a $4-$5 Billion industry); and the second-tier aviation sector has experienced growth of 32.2%. currently, AAVG revenues are at $1.3 Million; the company is very close to achieving full reporting status and has 67,049,542 shares outstanding as of March 19, 2010. AAVG can also boast an elite FBO with over 54 years as a luxury destination provider to one of the wealthiest areas in the nation, southwest Florida. Historically, the 7 plane fleet has serviced corporate clients taking vacations, Bahamians doing business in the United States, and shipping cargo to the Bahamas from the U.S.

The projected revenues from AAVG’s planned acquisitions are $10 million for 2010 and directly linked to the new marketing plan complete with: new services, maintenance staffing services, and cost-reducing technology. for investors, the new business plans promise more company transparency, revenue-generating endeavors, and structured funding in order to funnel profits into promotions. the company’s revitalized list of short-term goals proves that AAVG is set to take flight in 2010.

Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATSG) Shareholders of ATSG recently met and re-elected three directors, ratified the appointment of the Company’s outside auditors and approved a management proposal.

Directors re-elected to three-year terms on the Board were James E. Bushman, 65, Randy D. Rademacher, 53, and Jeffrey a. Dominick, 45. Deliotte & Touche LLP will continue to serve as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2010.

UPS (NYSE:UPS) announced its fleet of alternative-fuel vehicles had expanded with the deployment of 25 next-generation hybrid electric delivery trucks to Long Island.

Currently, 50 UPS hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) operate in Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Phoenix. the 25 trucks deployed here are part of 200 new HEVs deployed recently to eight U.S. cities. They join the roughly 20,000 low-emission and alternative-fuel vehicles already in use by UPS. the 200 new trucks will operate in Austin, Houston, Philadelphia, Chicago, Washington, D.C., Long Island, Minneapolis and Louisville.

Air T, Inc. (Nasdaq:AIRT) recently reported Board of Director approval for payment of a $0.33 per share fiscal 2010 annual cash dividend, to be paid on June 25, 2010 to shareholders of record June 4, 2010.

Air T, Inc. also announced that it intends to release its results for year-end March 31, 2010 on Tuesday, June 8, 2010. Walter Clark, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, and John Parry, Chief Financial Officer, will hold a conference call at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on June 8, 2010 to review the results. There will also be a replay of the call available by telephone through June 15, 2010.

Janel World Trade, ltd. (OTC.BB:JLWT) announced recently Phil Dubato has been appointed Executive Vice President of Finance. most recently, Dubato served as Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and as a member of the Board of Directors for Target Logistics, Inc. (Target), a previously publicly traded global logistics company

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Stock Updates from CRWE Wallstreet! AAVG, ATSG, UPS, AIRT, JLWT …

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MAY 26, 2010 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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PRE-OPEN STOCKS WATCH *************

S&P futures vs fair value: +9.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.00. Stock futures point to a markedly higher start for the major equity averages as the prior session`s 3% rally off of six-month lows is extended into this morning`s premarket trade.

The move has been mirrored by overseas markets, which have caught a relief bid after falling to multimonth lows of their own.

APCVZ – SPECULATIVE WATCH ALERT APCVZ – UNUSUAL ACTIVITY ALERT APCVZ – BREAKING $0.13 PRE-OPEN APCVZ – APP Pharmaceuticals, inc. is a fully-integrated pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures and markets injectable pharmaceutical products with a primary focus on the oncology, anti-infective, anesthetic/analgesic and critical care markets.

NVDA- GETS $18 PRICE TARGET FROM FBR CAPITAL MARKETS NVDA – BREAKING $13 PRE-OPEN NVDA – PRICE TARGET ALERT *************

CJBK – MERGER ALERT GJBK – BREAKING $4.50 PRE-OPEN GJBK – Central Jersey Bancorp shares surged after Kearny Financial(KRNY ) said it would acquire the bank in a $72.3 million all-cash deal. Shareholder of Central Jersey Bancorp will receive $7.50 per share, a 143% premium to Tuesday`s closing price of $3.08.

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Pre-Open Stocks Watch ( APCVZ ) ( NVDA ) ( CJBK ) Recov …

I heard that the housing market being low in sales and with the forclousure market crashing, it is affecting investors so much that they are moving money out of equities (stocks) and investing more in safer investments. Thats why the stock market has been down so much in the past week.

How does this happen? I was reading about it, but I didn’t really understand. Are investors pulling out their stocks from big lenders? how exactly does it affect the stock market? I need help understanding it in normal terms that make sense.

Please advise, thank you!!

How does the housing market affect the stock market so much?